Monday, September 16, 2024

Violent Crime in Russia Not Up Since Start of Expanded War in Ukraine but Interior Ministry Expects It to Rise when Veterans of that Conflict Return Home

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 12 – While serious crimes involving the Internet and drugs have continued to rise in Russia since the start of Putin’s expanded war in Ukraine, the number of violence crimes such as murder, rape and assault has continued to fall. But Russian interior ministry officials expect the latter to go up once veterans begin to return in massive numbers.

            Despite expectations, ministry experts say, violent crimes have not gone up largely ecause men in the age groups most likely to commit them are off the streets and on the battlefield. When they return, however, violent crime is likely to surge  (tochno.st/materials/cislo-tiazkix-prestuplenii-v-rossii-dostiglo-rekordnyx-znacenii-za-12-let-no-eto-ne-sviazano-s-rostom-nasiliia-glavnoe-o-prestupnosti-v-2023-godu).

            The To Be Precise portal says that violent crimes committed by foreigners have risen by 10 percent since 2019, but there is no open source confirmation of official claims that migrant workers are committing almost all of these and more. And what statistics have been released show that crimes by foreigners fell by three percent between 2022 and 2023.

            The portal also reports that violent crime is highest in Siberia and the Far East, regions where alcohol consumption is highest, and lowest in the North Caucasus, a Muslim region where alcohol consumption is far lower than the all-Russian average (tochno.st/materials/kakie-regiony-rossiie-opasnye-reiting-prestupnosti-ot-esli-byt-tocnym).

            The portal’s conclusion about crime in the North Caucasus excludes Chechnya where crimes like disappearances and the elimination by other means of opponents of the regime would likely dramatically affect the total figures, distorting the regional pattern, because figures about such crimes are not accurately reported by either Grozny or Moscow.

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