Russia Suffering from Same ‘Chain of Catastrophes’ as at End of USSR, for Same Reasons, and Likely with Same Result, Z Blogger Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 25 – Predictions of Russia’s collapse and disintegration are coming ever more frequently from those who oppose Putin’s war in Ukraine, but now similar predictions are coming from those who support the war but don’t think the Kremlin leadership of today is capable of winning.

            Among those in this emerging category is Maksim Kalashnikov, a Z military correspondent, who says that he feels a sense of déjà vu when he considers what is happening because it features so many of the same things that brought down the Soviet system just over three decades ago (dialog.ua/war/302087_1727207888).

            The pro-war blogger says that the reason Russia is heading toward defeat in Ukraine is “the collapse of the system of state administration” in Moscow and that that collapse has happened because of the negative selection of cadres with the best being passed over or excluded and the worst retained or promoted.

            Such a system cannot win the war or even keep the population from being demoralized; and this one hasn’t done either, Kalashnikov says. And that suggests that Russia’s future is anything but a good one. Instead, it is more likely to be like the future of the USSR in 1990-1991.

            Indeed, he continues, it cannot even prevent the simple disasters in the streets of Moscow that any regime not consisting of imbeciles could. And as a result, those looking for the main chance even at the cost of their country likely have the best opportunities to succeed in the future just as was the case at the end of Soviet times.

‘A New Stalin isn’t Enough to Deal with Russia’s Problems; It Needs an Orthodox Tamerlane,’ Romanov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 25 – It is widely known that there are many Stalinists in Russia, but it is less widely appreciated that there are Russians who think Stalin was insufficiently repressive given the nature of that country’s domestic and foreign problems. But such people exist and their views likely get more of a hearing than anyone of good will could possibly want.

            One such is Igor Romanov, the editor of the Bereg Rus portal in the Russian Far East. In an article entitled “Stalin is Not Enough, We Need an Orthodox Tamerlane,” he makes exactly that point; and in accompanying articles, he specifies that among those who must be weeded out are Masons and Jews (beregrus.ru/?p=15150, beregrus.ru/?p=15147 and beregrus.ru/?p=15145).

            Criticizing Stalin for being overly soft is not something one often encounters, and one might expect anyone who did so to be isolated quickly. But in fact, Romanov has close ties with the Russian Orthodox Church and Russian nationalist writers and activists and even offers interesting discussions of a wide variety of issues far removed from this one.

            For examples of his articles that have attracted my attention over the last few years, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/06/russias-disintegration-could-well-begin.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2021/08/russian-federations-time-running-out.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2018/05/separatist-ideas-spreading-in-ethnic.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2017/05/western-missionaries-said-working-with.html.

‘Now or Never’ as Key to Understanding Strength of Non-Russian Movements within the Russian Federation

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 23 – There were two kinds of national movements among the non-Russian peoples of the USSR, the optimistic ones in Central Asia who concluded that their goals were going to be achieved by demography alone and the pessimistic who felt that they had to work for independence now because within a generation it would be impossible.

            The classical examples of these were the three Baltic nations, all of whom felt that if they didn’t escape Moscow’s rule very quickly, they would not have the numbers to do so, and others like the Ukrainians and Belarusians who felt that they were being assimilated so quickly that the same

            Not surprisingly, the Baltic movements born out of this sense of desperation were the strongest and for this reason, in combination with their geographic location, historical experience, and support from abroad, they proved the strongest and achieved more of their goals than any of the others.

            This sense of “now or never” is affecting many of the non-Russian nations within the current borders of the Russian Federation. A clear reminder of this is provided by a Bashkir activist who outlines the reasons that members of his nation must pursue independence now or face disaster (t.me/s/freenationsrussia?before=7649 reposted at idel-ural.org/archives/12-prychyn-pochemu-bashkortostan-dolzhen-obresty-nezavysymost/#more-24564).

            Specifically, he argues at the conclusion of a long article that it must be the message of the national movement that “if the Bashkirs in the next 30 years do not acquire independence and do not construction their own nation state, they will be condemned to assimilation and to disappearance as a separate people.”

            Those words could have come out of the mouths about the nations who experienced pessimistic nationalism at the end of Soviet times, either because they were so small and not growing in numbers or because, however large they might be, they were subject to assimilation pressures they could not resist. 

             By their policies, the Soviet leadership in the 1980s and the Russian leadership now have left ever more nations with this sense and thus bore and bear primary responsibility for the fact that nations under their control now think that they have no option but to pursue independence now or never.