Artificial Intelligence Now Allowing Moscow to Increase Repression while Cutting Costs of Doing So, Russian Analyst Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 11 – At the end of July, Aleksandr Bastrykin, head of Russia’s Investigative Committee, celebrated the fact that his agency had been able to integrate artificial intelligence and other IT technologies to improve its monitoring of society by processing data more quickly and cheaply than had ever been possible before.

            Aleksandr Mikhailov, a Russian analyst writing for The Insider, says that this is just one more indication that Russia, like other authoritarian states such as China and North Korea, is using AI to increase repression while at the same time cutting the costs of doing so (theins.ru/obshestvo/295475).

            In a 6,000-word article, Mikhailov describes both what these other states have been doing and how Moscow has copied them in order to make Putin’s authoritarianism not only more comprehensive than any before him but also to do so in ways that don’t require the same commitment of money and time to achieve that end.

            “Traditional methods of authoritarianism—censorship, espionage, propaganda, and forceful suppression—all required significant human and financial resources,” he writes. But “AI has changed the state of affairs” allowing authoritarian states to rapidly increase their repressive control but at far less cost.

            Mikhailov concludes with a sobering warning: “AI has exacerbated the historical confrontation between freedom and tyranny.” As a result, the democratic world no longer has the right to slow down: the algorithms of authoritarian regimes” “are already making decisions to suppress freedoms faster than democratic institutions have time to react.”

Kyrgyz and Uzbek Scholars Mull Promoting Citizens of Central Asian Countries to Identify as ‘Central Asians’

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 10 – Researchers from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan believe that the countries of Central Asia should encourage their citizens to identify in the first instance as “Central Asians” so as to provide a foundation for the increasing cooperation among the states in that region.

            At a meeting is Bishkek, the Uzbekistan Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies and the Kyrgyzstan  Institute for Strategic Initiatives, both of which serve as advisors to their respective presidents, met with representatives of the Swiss PeaceNexus Foundation and came up with a draft concept paper on this (cronos.asia/news/tsentralnoaziat-kto-on-takoy-i-zachem-nuzhen-regionu/).

            The draft concept calls for “coordinating efforts in the humanitarian, information, cultural, educational and other areas” to support among the populations of the five Central Asian countries “a sustainable sense of regional affiliation” and thus support the growing importance of Consultative Meetings of the Chiefs of State there.

            Not even all the participants in the Bishkek meeting think that the idea is a good one. The Kyrgyz hosts, for example, described themselves as “guests” rather than “participants” in the meeting and no one is sure what role Azerbaijan would have in such an effort even though it is increasingly integrated in the chiefs of state meetings.

            The concept paper defines a Central Asian as someone who “while maintaining his ethnic, civil and religious identity also feels that he or she belongs to the community of peoples of the region, one with a common historical memory, the values of good neighborliness and peace loving, and mutual respect for their cultural and linguistic distinctions.”

            Given that, it is unclear how far this project may go; and one thing limiting it still further is that like the meetings of the region’s chiefs of state, the Central Asian identity uses Russian as the common language, even though that language was imposed from the outside. Unless that changes, there is a danger that this idea could be hijacked by Moscow to weaken the states.

            But the participants at the Bishkek meeting expressed confidence that the Central Asian identity they want to promote would be very different from the slightly and even offensive "Central Asia" identity that some in Moscow promote and that, because of that, it may take off as more people become familiar with the concept paper.   

In Unprecedented Move, Moscow Sends Convoy of Oil Tankers North of Severnaya Zemlya on Its Way to China

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 10 – In what Scandinavian experts say is an “extremely risky” move, Russian tankers loaded with as much as one million tons of oil destined for China have travelled north of Severnaya Zemlya, much father north than the normal Northern Sea Route path and a larger on-time convoy to China than anyone can remember.

            Last week, the convoy, which involved some 15 vessels, sailed north of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago to 81.5 degrees north latitude. In the past, ships moving through that are use the more southern Vikitsky Strait (thebarentsobserver.com/news/in-unprecedented-arctic-operation-russia-sends-convoy-of-oil-tankers-to-815n/455488).

            According to Norvald Kjerstad, a retired Norwegian specialist on the Arctic, there has never been such a large convoy travelling so far north or one whose ships are not specially reenforced for travel in icy wagers.  Indeed, he says this passage is “the northernmost route ordinary oil tankers have ever taken.”

            "Although the waters north of Severnaya Zemlya are now ice-free, there is still a relatively large amount of ice to navigate through in the East Siberian Sea and the De Long Strait (inside Wrangel Island),” he says; and this large convoy is especially at risk for two reasons.

On the one hand, its ships are not the ice class vessels that one sometimes sees the Russians use in the Arctic; and on the other, and potentially more serious, Russian icebreakers are not nearby as they would be if the convoy was following the normal route closer to land. That makes the potential for disaster far higher in this high-risk move.

Pressed, Karelian Government Admits Having Signed Agreement with Notorious ‘Russian Community’ to Keep Order in the Republic

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 12 – Pressed by residents, the Karelian government has admitted to having signed without fanfare a special agreement with the Russian Community that calls for that organization, notorious for its attacks on immigrants and minorities, to help keep order in the republic.

            Petrozavodsk gave no further details about this accord which had been rumored in Karelia  except to say that the arrangement was being handled by the republic interior ministry (ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/administracia-petrozavodska-priznalas-v-zaklucenii-dogovora-s-nacionalistami/455638).

            Such an agreement is worrisome both for Karelia and for Russia as a whole. For Karelia, it is worrisome because the Russian Community organization there last week openly interfered with a commemoration of the victims of Stalin’s crimes at Sandarmokh and thus appears even then to have had official sanction to do so.

            And for the Russian Federation as a whole, it represents yet another precedent for the integration of bullyboys from the Russian community into the Russian state in ways that will allow Moscow to repress more people but preserve the kind of deniability that unfortunately many in Russia and the west will accept.

            For background on the Russian Community and its activities, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/04/russian-community-is-becoming-orthodox.html and www.jamestown.org/program/russian-community-extremists-becoming-the-black-hundreds-of-today  and the sources cited therein.   

Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russia’s Water Supply Network Would Lead to Disaster and Moscow would Be to Blame, ‘NeMoskva’ Commentator Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 5 – Because Moscow has failed for 25 years to do much to modernize the water supply networks of Russia, Ukrainian drone attacks on those networks can lead to a “cascading” disaster much as such attacks on oil and gas already have, according to Tatyana Rybakova of the NeMoskva portal.

            It is a good question, she says, just how many parts of that system will have to be attacked to “start cascading decay.” And she asks further “does the Ukrainian military know this?” and does Moscow and its minions?  But increasingly the Russian people can and do (nemoskva.net/2026/08/05/ne-pavodok-vinovat-pochemu-v-rossijskih-gorodah-propadayut-voda-i-svet/).

            Communal services are breaking down in Russian cities not so much because of natural disasters like flooding, Rybakova continues, but because of the inaction of officials in Moscow and in the regions. Experts have been warning that the government needs to act, but despite that, it hasn’t taken the necessary steps.

            Between 40 and 80 percent of the country’s water network has aged to the point that it is ready to collapse when any strain is put on it, either by floods or by drones, she says; but officials are happy to continue to blame flooding rather than address the root cause and thus are leaving Russia open to a new line of attack.

            Two things make this situation especially explosive, Rybakova continues. On the one hand, officials have been only to willing to allow charges for water to rise without using the money collected as intended; and on the other, they have not developed a country-wide grid so that problems in one place could quickly be helped to overcome them by others.

            Russians are increasingly angry about both, she suggests; and if Ukrainian drone attacks exacerbate the situation further, that could lead to an explosion, with Russians connecting the dots and placing the blame where it really belongs: on Putin for his failure to invest in water infrastructure as well as for his launching of the expanded war against Ukraine.

UPDATE:  The Ukrainian authorities have taken notice of these problems with Russia's water supply infrastructure and on Aug. 11 they attacked waterworks in Novorossiisk, leaving tens of thousands of Russians there without water (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/08/12/novorossiisk-ostalsya-bez-vodi-posle-massirovannoi-ataki-dronov-a20326).

 

 

 

Putin’s Call for Developing Online Work Opportunities in Rural Areas By Itself Won’t Hold People There, Three Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 11 – To prevent the depopulation of large swaths of the territory of the Russian Federation, something that would threaten the country’s security, Vladimir Putin says he favors using modern technologies so that people who live in rural areas and small cities can work remotely rather than have to move to major metropolises.

            But three experts surveyed by the Regional Comment portal say that such an effort by itself will not prevent the decline of population in rural areas and smaller cities (regcomment.ru/reviews/aglomeratsionnye-svyazi-vmesto-izyatiya-deneg-kak-vyrovnyat-razvitie-regionov-bez-konfliktov/).

            Artemy Vvedensky, head of the Russian Field polling organization, says that Moscow must first of all distinguish two different reasons for rural depopulation: the natural loss of people by aging and the outflow of younger people. Any strategy that focuses only on one of these issues won’t work for all.

            He adds that “according to our research,” young Russians in rural areas and smaller cities “don’t leave for money.” Instead, they seek places where they can interact with others of their own age and interests. Those are more common in larger cities than in smaller ones and especially than in villages.

            And Vvedensky says that the most interesting finding of his research is that once people make a move from a village to a small city, they are more likely to move on to larger ones, having learned that they can adapt and therefore that a further move to an ever larger city or even abroad seems entirely reasonable.

            Stanislav Koryakin, a political consultant who is a member of Russia’s Public Chamber, says that the main task is to avoid trying to hold people “administratively” but rather to “create conditions” under which the decision to remain in rural areas or small cities is “a conscious choice.”

            That will be possible only if the government works to ensure “a comparable basic standard of living, regardless of the remoteness of the territory,” he says, something that is now not being done. And a standard of living involves not just pay but a sense that there is justice for all.

            And Igor Dachenkov, director of the Region Media group, says the government has to think bigger. Even if a young person can work remotely in a village, what will he do if he gets sick and there is no hospital?  Accordingly, the provision of “basic social infrastructure” is more important that creating any “digital environment.”

Over Last Five Years, Number of Ethnic Russians in Estonia has Fallen while Number of Ethnic Ukrainians has Doubled

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 11 – The ethnic composition of the population of Estonia has changed since the 2021 census, according to new figures for 2026 just released by the state statistical office. The number of ethnic Estonians has remained little changed, but the share of ethnic Russians has declined and the number of ethnic Ukrainians has doubled.

            The Postimees newspaper has published a selection of this new demographic data (rus.postimees.ee/8525051/statistika-v-estonii-sokratilos-chislo-russkih-i-vyroslo-chislo-ukraincev), Among the most important of its new numbers are the following:

•  Estonians dominate in all age groups. Among children and young people, the Estonian share exceeds 70 percent; but among the elderly, the Estonian share is lower than that and that of others, including the ethnic Russians, higher.

• The number of ethnic Ukrainians has increased dramatically especially since February 2022 when Putin launched his expanded war against Ukraine. They now form 5.5 percent of the Estonian population.

• Under Estonian law, individuals can change their nationality by applying to the government. Over the last three years, 23,686 have done so, shifting from ethnic Russian to some other nationality.

• 82.2 percent of the population has Estonian citizenship, while 5.5. percent of the population consists of citizens of the Russian Federation and 4.6 percent citizens of Ukraine.

• 65.4 percent of the residents speak Estonian as their native language, 26.9 percent identify Russian as their native language, and 4.1 percent Ukrainian. More than 5,000 identify English as their native language and 4,000 Finnish.

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