Kremlin Fighting Statistical War Against Its Own Country and the West and All Too Often Winning There, Voronenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – One of the most important fronts in Putin’s war against his own people and the outside world is the statistical one, a front that the Kremlin leader has had numerous victories because both Russians and outsiders are all too ready to accept statistics as somehow inherently true, Dmytro Voronenko says.

            That allows Putin to convince Russians that things are better overall than they may appear to individuals and too cause foreign governments to adopt policies he favors because his cooked statistics to hide the truth about Russia, the independent Ukrainian analyst says (ridl.io/ru/sem-oshibok-pri-analize-dannyh-iz-rossii-i-kak-ih-izbezhat/).

            Voronenko gives seven examples of Putin’s statistical sleight of hand, although he stresses that these are neither ranked nor comprehensive. Rather, he suggests, they are the tip of a very dangerous iceberg that Russian society and Western governments all too often Titanic-like risk running into. These include:

1.     Treating official figures as market prices when the state can set them thus contributing to the idea that Russia is really a market economy rather than an increasingly command one.

2.     Citing international sources which use Russian ones without mentioning that fact, thus giving more credence to Moscow’s figures and reducing the chance people will question them.

3.     Failing to mention Russian government laws and decrees that have changed what the numbers mean, leading people to compare apples and oranges without recognizing that fact.

4.     Changing the definition of categories so as to be able to leave out key components that are moving in a different direction than Moscow wants to advertise.

5.     Routinely changing the time frame data covers and thus presenting data sets “as if the last four years had not happened” and thus the impact of Putin’s war is concealed.

6.     Ignoring the ways in which Moscow counts stockpiles as part of production and thus buys time for itself when production falls.

7.     And last but far from least, pointing to special actions by the government as just a normal way of doing business and proof that the state is in control and that all is well.

The best way to protect oneself against such attacks by Putin on the statistical front, Voronenko concludes his detailed discussion of each of these, is to be aware of what Putin is doing and question his statistics just as much as would be the case if the numbers came from others, something that all too often now is not the case.

Russians and Europeans Must Recognize and Openly Declare that Putin’s Russia is a Fascist State, Skobov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – For Russia to recover and for its threat to the rest of the world eliminated, both Russians and Europeans must recognize and then openly declare that Putin’s Russia is a fascist state and that only by its defeat can that crime and threat be overcome, Aleksandr Skobov says.

            The Soviet and Russian dissident now in prison for calling for Ukraine’s victory against Putin’s aggression says that it is time for Russians who have recognized this reality to create a new party that will openly declare that its  goal is to overcome fascism in their country (forumfreerussia.org/articles/opinions/2026-09-29/programma-partii-skobova).

            At the same time, Skobov says, it is critically important that Europeans recognize this reality because “modern Europe was born in the fight against fascism” and thus is threatened by what Putin represents and how he acts.  Unfortunately, both in Russia and Europe, there are many who “very much do not want to believe that we are again faced with this evil.”

            According to Skobov, “Putin’s Russia is the most dangerous evil for modern civilization. The suppression of its aggression and the elimination of Putin’s tyranny is therefore the common cause of all civilized humanity.” And a Russian party that understands this must convince Europeans of the same before it is too late.

            Once that position again becomes the common view of people in Russia and Europe then it will be possible for the kind of joint actions that will be necessary not only to defeat Putin but to reverse the damage he has done in the first instance to Russia and Ukraine but even more broadly to Europe and the values on which the continent has striven to put in place.  

Enormous Gap in GDP Per Capita among Russian Regions has Increased Even More since 1991, ‘Club of the Regions’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – Since 1991, the GDP per capita has increased in all the federal subjects of the Russian Federation; but the gap between the richest and poorest has increased as well, with the richest being the two capitals and oil and gas producing regions and nine of the ten poorest being non-Russian republics, the ‘Club of the Regions’ reports.

            The wealthiest on this metric is the oil and gas-rich Nenets Autonomous District which has a GDP per capita of 538,965 US dollars, the portal says. The poorest is Ingushetia with a GDP per capita of 10,429 US dollars, less than two percent of that of the richest (club-rf.ru/theme/729).

            As horrific as that difference is, even more disturbing is the fact that the Russian government has done little or nothing to address this imbalance and that as a result, while the wealthier regions have gotten richer on this metric, the poorer ones have fallen even further behind than they were at the end of Soviet times.

            This imbalance in the Russian Federation is far worse than in other major countries, the portal continues. In China, the difference between the richest and poorest areas differs between five and six times, in Germany by three or four times, and in the United States by only two or three times.

            That has two major consequences, the Club of the Regions analysis says. On the one hand, it is leading to uncontrolled migration from the poorest to the richest regions; and on the other, it is sparking calls in the poorest regions for a new deal or even independence, thus threatening the territorial integrity of the country.

Water in Russia’s Major Rivers ‘Polluted’ and ‘Dirty,’ Government Report Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – As if the Russian Federation did not have enough problems, the government’s ministry of nature says in a draft report that most of the largest rivers of the country including the Volga, the Ob, the Yenisey, the Don, the Amur, and their tributaries have water that is “polluted” and “dirty.”

            The main sources of this pollution are waste waters from urban areas and industries that are not treated adequately, the report says; but there is little prospect for cleaning them up given how many heavy metals have sunk to the bottom of these rivers (nemoskva.net/2026/09/29/minprirody-voda-v-krupnejshih-rekah-rossii-priznana-gryaznoj/).

            In the surface waters of these rivers, concentrations of iron, copper, organic waste, petroleum products and nitrates all exceed maximum permissible concentrations, few of which are adequately reduced by existing water treatment facilities. Consequently, the rivers are making Russians sick.

            The report does not address another aspect of this contamination, the international one. Many of these rivers, such as the Volga which flows into the Caspian Sea and the Amur which is on the Chinese border, affect neighboring countries; and so Russia’s failure to clean up its rivers is an international problem.

            It is likely that the Russian government will seek to modify the draft report to try to convince people that things are not that bad; and so it is fortunate the NeMoskva portal has provided not only a link to the draft report but also a discussion of just how much of the pollution of rivers is becoming.

Putin’s Invasion has Strengthened Ukrainian Identity including among Russian Speakers in Eastern Portions of Ukraine, Skorkin Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has had the unintended and for him unwelcome consequence of strengthening Ukrainian national identity in the eastern portions of Ukraine and promoted the rise of “Russian-speaking Ukrainian nationalism,” according to Konstantin Skorkin.

            The journalist who reports on the Donbass says that what Putin has done has “radicalized” the population there, with Ukrainians there who opposed nationalist messages changing their position and many who earlier identified as Russians now identifying as Ukrainians at least in a civic sense (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/09/29/novii-natsionalizm-kak-rossiya-ukrepila-ukrainskuyu-natsionalnuyu-identichnost-a207289).

            Both groups increasingly accept the Ukrainian nationalism that many in that country and abroad saw as restricted to the western portions of Ukraine that Stalin absorbed into the USSR at the end of World War II. That means that Ukraine has been integrated way and that Moscow and its backers will get a surprise if they force Kyiv to yield the east to Moscow.

            Such regions would not quickly integrate into Russia but rather become a source of resistance within that country, possibly even stronger than the one Ukrainians in the west displayed when Stalin moved the borders west. Neither Putin nor many others understand that if Putin gets want he wants in terms of borders, he will almost inevitably lose more than he gains.

            And such Ukrainian resistance then within the nominal borders of the Russian Federation would likely do more to spark both radical Russian nationalism and equally radical non-Russian nationalism in ways that would tear the Russian Federation apart, exactly the opposite of what the Kremlin says it wants.

            A few years ago, some joked that Ukrainians should put up two statues of Russian leaders in their capital who had done so much for Ukraine, one to Stalin who expanded Ukraine’s borders, and another to Putin, who is seeking to reduce them,  because each has done so much to promote a powerful upsurge of Ukrainian nationalism.

            That is no longer funny for Moscow, especially as the inclusion of  eastern Ukraine within the Russian Federation would have such likely fatal consequences for the survival of the Muscovite state. Indeed, it could even happen that Putin will have helped Ukraine even more than Stalin did by contributing to the destruction of Ukraine’s greatest enemy. 

Tehran May Allow Construction of Russian-Gauge Railway across Iran

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – The Iranian government, which has already agreed to the use of the broader Russian-gauge railway (1520 mm as opposed to the international standard of 1435 km) on the 162 km Rasht-Astara section in the north, is now mulling allowing the extension of a railroad with the Russian gauge southward to the Gulf of Iran.

            That possibility has been announced by Tehran’s ambassador to Moscow, Kazen Jalali, and would eliminate the bottlenecks resulting from the need to change the chassis of trains from the Russian standard to the international standard at the border between the two countries (casp-geo.ru/iran-dopustil-prodlenie-rossijskoj-zh-d-kolei-1520-do-persidskogo-zaliva/).

            Were Tehran to agree and the two countries to arrange financing, something they have had difficulty in securing or coming up with, that would dramatically change trade patterns in the region, giving Russia enormous advantages in importing and exporting its goods and offering Iran large transit fees as well.

            What makes this possible agreement between the two countries so striking is that it comes after Moscow has been forced to agree to Chinese demands that it modify some of Russia’s domestic rail routes to accommodate Chinese trade. (For background on that, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/04/bowing-to-china-moscow-for-first-time.html.)

            Financing may kill this idea just as it has delayed the start of construction on the Rasht-Astara section, but it is an indication of just how much Russia wants this and how willing Iran is now prepared to talk about something that had not been on the table in the past. 

Udmurts Offer Third Way Between Two Self-Defeating Radicalisms, Shtepa Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Sept. 29 – Non-Russians all too often either strike out radical poses and demand independence for their nations rather than cooperation with those who live among them or yield to Moscow’s demands that they yield their national languages and traditions and accept Russian ones instead, Vadim Shtepa says.

           The first of these positions is self-defeating because Moscow can play up divisions between these ethnic groups and defeat any possibility of achieving either more autonomy or independence; and the second is so as well because it promotes the idea that resistance to what the Russian authorities are demanding is somehow inevitable. Neither need to be the case, the editor of the Tallinn-based Region.Expert portal says.

            But one nation and its representatives abroad have adopted a third way in between those positions, calling for the defense of the rights of all those who live on their territories regardless of nationality and the gradual acquisition of the language of the titular republic and thus a way to expand the nation's reach and ability to cooperate rather than limit both. 

            In an article for the Estonian journal Diplomaatia (diplomaatia.ee/udmurdi-revolutsioon-omaalgatuslikud-valimised/) which has been translated into Russian (region.expert/udmurt/) praises this moderate position and sees it as a model others non-Russian and Russian should consider adopting.

            For a discussion of how Udmurts living abroad have used secure voting to choose a body that supports this middle way and is appealing to international organizations, see my article on the Udmurt position and the election it has arranged are so important at jamestown.org/two-russian-elections-whose-outcome-really-matters-in-south-ossetia-and-udmurtia/.