Kremlin’s New Demography Strategy Document Calls for Spending Enormous Sums but Not for Slowing Russia's Population Decline, Demographers Say

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – With much pomp, the Kremlin has released a new strategy document on family and demographic policy for the next decade; but unfortunately, Moscow demographer Yury Krupnov says, it has “no relation to demography” and thus, even if followed to the letter, will have little impact on Russia’s demographic decline.
    The senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development says that what goals the document talks about aren’t about increasing the birthrate. Rather, it is at best “a strategy of the withering away” of the Russian nation with the Kremlin serving as its funeral staff (nakanune.ru/articles/123323/).
    Other independent demographers queried by Nakanune journalist Yevgeny Chernyshov agree.  Inna Gorslavtseva, one who advises the Moscow Patriarchate, says that what the strategy demonstrates is that “the powers that be do not have any idea what to do” and thus have adopted “a strategy of inaction.”
    What that means, she continues, is that the Kremlin is clearly counting on “replacing” the existing Russian population with migrants from one part of the world or another, something Russians fear and that almost all of them oppose.  A view Yury Pronko of Tsargrad television shares.
    And Pavel Pohigaylo, deputy head of the Social Chamber’s commission on demography, says that what is truly horrific is how much the Kremlin says it will spend to get such a horrific result: 17 trillion rubles (170 billion US dollars) to preside over the decline of the Russian population over the next decade by five million people.

Moscow Plans to Restrict Ability of Russians to Seek Medical Treatment beyond Their Own Region of Residence

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – Even as Putin’s closure of numerous medical facilities across the country to save money for his war in Ukraine has reduced access to care for many Russians, the Russian health ministry now is planning to restrict such access still further, a move that will mean ever more Russians who have the most serious diseases will suffer and die.
    Up to now, Russians who want to go to another part of the country for treatment of cancer or other serious diseases need get  only the recommendation of their local doctor. But as of September, if current plans hold, they will have to receive the approval of special medical boards (medvestnik.ru/content/news/V-Rossii-hotyat-ujestochit-usloviya-polucheniya-specializirovannoi-medpomoshi-v-drugom-regione.html).
    These bodies can be counted on to be less supportive of applications than the personal doctors of those suffering from various illnesses. Like Putin’s healthcare “optimization” program, that will save the Russian government money but only at the cost of increasing suffering in regions far from Moscow or other major centers.
    Because this suffering and deaths will take place far from the capital and thus can be obscured from an all-Russian audience, the Kremlin is likely to assume that it will get away with this latest “cost-saving” measure.  But it is entirely possible that this latest form of medical serfdom will spark a backlash especially among opposition political activists.
    If that happens, it will be only the latest example of the Putin regime shooting itself in the foot, a pattern that challenges the widely held view that the Kremlin incumbent is a master politician. He has succeeded against the West and at home up to now, but the chances he will be able to continue to do so, at least with regard to Russia itself are declining.  

Number of Russians Living in Poverty Really Falling but by Far Less than Moscow Claims, ‘To Be Precise’ Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – In recent years, the number and share of Russians living in poverty has fallen, largely as a result of changes in the economy as a result of the covid pandemic and Putin’s war in Ukraine; but these figures have fallen by far less than Moscow claims, according to an investigation by the To Be Precise portal.
    Last year, Rosstat, the Russian government’s statistical arm, undercounted the poor in Russia by 2.4 million, an outcome that it achieved by changing the definition of poverty. Had the previous definitions and the statistics supporting them been used, the number of poor would have fallen but by far less than Moscow claims (tochno.st/materials/vypali-iz-statistiki-rosstata-v-2024-godu).
    To Be Precise provides a detailed discussion of this statistical sleight of hand that is important both for those concerned about the actual level of poverty in Russia and for those who use Russian statistics more generally, Quite often, the portal says, the figures Moscow provides are accurate in terms of the definitions used but these definitions keep changing.  
    Over the last four years alone, Rosstat has changed the definitions it uses and so is able to offer statistics which conform to the Kremlin’s desires, not by open falsification but by statistical sleight of hand – and this is something that with each passing year of the Putin regime, students of that country must take into increasing attention. 

Moscow to Expand Effort to Defend Rights of Russian Compatriots in Baltic Countries

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – The Russian foreign ministry together with the Moscow Foundation for the Support and Defense of Compatriots Living Abroad has put together plans for improving the defense of citizens of the Russian Federation as well as other ethnic Russians living in the Baltic countries.
    That was the message delivered by various speakers at a conference in Kaliningrad this week on “The Status of Russian Compatriots in the Countries of the Baltic Region” (vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2025/03/28/1100787-rossiya-namerena-uluchshit-zaschitu-sootechestvennikov-v-stranah-pribaltiki).
    Aleksandr Udaltsov, the head of the Foundation for the Support and Defense of Compatriots, said that such an effort was needed because pressure on such people by the Baltic governments was intensifying and existing means of seeking to defend these people via international human rights groups no longer work.
    Among the steps participants called for are the preparation of a list of violations of the rights of Russians in the Baltic countries, a more precise definition of compatriot so that people in that category will know what they can expect, and an expanded effort by official agencies and NGOs in Russia to defend compatriots abroad in general and in the Baltic region in particular.
    These moves are clearly in preparation for a larger Kremlin effort against the Baltic countries and thus merit attention even if the steps the Kaliningrad meeting outlined seem anodyne.

Ukrainian Government Calls on Nations of the World to Recognize Circassian Genocide

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – In conformity with a January 2025 resolution passed by the Verkhhovna Rada and despite all the challenges Kyiv now faces, Denys Shmygal, Ukraine’s prime minister, has approved a message to all countries of the world to recognize what the Russian government did to the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide.
    Shmygal signed an order specifying that such an appeal will “help raise awareness about the genocide of the Circassian (Adyghe) people, as well as other crimes committed by the Russian Empire, by disseminating knowledge about such crimes in educational and research programs” (kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zvernennia-do-uriadiv-derzhav-svitu-shchodo-spryiannia-pidvyshchenniu-rivnia-s270280325).
    His words represent a serious political victory by Circassian organizations who have sought such a declaration for more than a decade and equally important a reaffirmation of Kyiv’s commitment to support peoples within the current borders of the Russian Federation who have been and continue to be oppressed by Moscow.  
    For background on the Circassian effort and Ukrainian moves to support it and other national movements inside the Russian Federation, see  windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/01/ukrainian-parliament-declares-russian.htmlm windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/11/kyiv-now-reaching-out-to-circassian.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/08/ukraine-set-to-adopt-comprehensive.html.)

Putin hasn’t Attacked the Free Masons Despite Long History of Russian Hostility toward Them, Anonymous Writer Says in ‘The Moscow Times’

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 27 – Over the last several centuries, many prominent Russians have become free masons and then been attacked by both the state and society for their membership in that secret society. But today, they have somehow remained “in the Kremlin’s good books” and have escaped such attacks, according to an anonymous writer in The Moscow Times.
    Indeed, the writer says, “free masonry may be one of Russia’s safest independent civic groups.” According to Andrey Bogdanov, the grand master of the Russian lodge, his organization “has no issues” as far as operating in Russia (themoscowtimes.com/2025/03/27/how-the-secretive-freemasons-stayed-in-the-kremlins-good-books-a88501).
    Given the history of Russian nationalist and government attacks on Masons and their involvement in supposed “Jewish-Masonic conspiracy,” the absence of attacks on masons and their organization in Russia is striking especially given how ready the Kremlin is to attack other independent groups.
    A major reason for masonry’s immunity from attack appears to be its low profile and its declaration that none of its estimated 1300 members occupies a significant position in the government. Moreover, its public pronouncements are overwhelmingly patriotic and consistent with the Kremlin line.
The Moscow Patriarchate and various Russian nationalists don’t like the masons and occasionally issue pronouncements against them, but the Kremlin and the masons appear to “have reached a mutual understanding … happy to leave each other alone and to maintain a distant almost secret acquaintanceship.”
Neither has anything “to gain by rocking that boat,” the anonymous author says, adding that maybe some things are best kept secret.” But Russian history suggests that in the transition from Putin to a new ruler, the masons could become the object of attack by those seeking to mobilize Russian nationalists for or against the new regime.

Life Expectancy for Russians at Age 55 Jumped after Covid But Only Because Many of the Weakest Died, ‘To Be Precise’ Portal Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 24 – Most governments report on life expectancy from birth not only because it is the most widely understood and available measure but because the authorities can quickly boost that statistic with relatively small reductions in mortality rates among babies and infants.
    It is nonetheless a useful figure especially when making comparisons among countries, but one that says even more about the state of well-being of a society is life expectancy at older age groups, particularly at age 55 which is typically close to the end of the working life of individuals.
    As part of its broader study of the state of the older generation in the Russian Federation, the To Be Precise portal provides data on that not only among the federal subjects of the country now but over time (tochno.st/materials/kak-zivet-starsee-pokolenie-v-rossii-reiting-regionov-ot-esli-byt-tocnym).
    For the Russian Federation as a whole, life expectancy at age 55 rise from 17.8 additional years in 2019 to 20.2 additional ones in 2023. The reason for the large jump in that year reflected no dramatic increase in medical care or changes in life style but the fact that so many elderly who were ill died in the course of the covid pandemic the year before.
    This is just one of the statistics that To Be Precise offers about the condition of those over 55 in the Russian Federation that helps to explain why the number of elderly in that country has grown so slowly over the last decades (tochno.st/materials/za-poslednie-30-let-granica-starosti-v-rossii-sdvinulas-na-tri-goda-vpered-i-eto-xorosaia-novost-no-smertnost-liudei-starse-65-let-vse-eshhe-vysokaia).