Covid Still Killing Russians and Kremlin Still Using Covid Restrictions to Ban Public Protests, ‘Horizontal Russia’ Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 31 – The number of people falling ill with covid fell sharply after Putin launched his expanded war in Ukraine and the pandemic ceased to be the focus of intense interest. But despite that, Russians continue to die from the disease, and 21 federal subjects use restrictions imposed during the pandemic to ban protests, Horizontal Russia reports.
    The latter is the more important “survival,” the news agency suggests. Infections and deaths are down significantly across the country. Only 225 Russians died of covid during the first quarter of 2025. But officials have retained the restrictions because that is a convenient way to ban public meetings (semnasem.org/articles/2025/03/31/kovid).
    And just as was the case during the worst times of the pandemic, officials apply these restrictions selectively. Pro-government actions aren’t interfered with, but anti-government ones are suppressed, with blame invariably placed on the danger of the spread of covid infections rather than anything else.
    Another legacy of the covid pandemic in Russia involves doctors and other medical personnel who led the fight against it. They were promised bonuses for their dangerous but essential work. In many cases, the Putin regime has not paid them; and a large number have gone to court to try to get the money they are owed.

Departure of Immigrant Workers Not Leading to More Jobs and Higher Pay for Russians, ‘Versiya’ Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 31 – Moscow officials say that Russia currently suffers from a shortage of five million workers. The departure of many migrant workers has intensified this problem; but despite expectations, this trend has not led to more jobs and higher pay for Russian residents, according to the Versiya news agency.  
    Because changes in the ruble exchange rate make working in Russia less profitable than before and because hostility to migrants has intensified over the last year, the number of migrant workers in Russia has fallen by a million in the past 12 months and will fall even more in the next, Versiya says (versia.ru/gastarbajtery-massovo-pokidayut-rossiyu--rabochie-mesta-i-vysokie-zarplaty-dostanutsya-mestnym).
    But this has not been the boon for Russian residents that many had expected. The migrants often do jobs Russians don’t want or aren’t qualified for, and consequently, the work simply doesn’t get done at the same rate. And at the same time, these shortages aren’t pushing up wages elsewhere because of how segmented the Russian labor market it.
    In it, where migrant workers leave, employers may offer more money to try to retain them or attract others. But those are jobs Russians don’t want or can’t qualify for. And such increases in pay in those sectors do not have much of an impact on other sectors where Russians are employed or seek work.  Any increases in jobs and pay there are driven by other factors.  

In March 2025, Russian Forces Gained Less Ground in Ukraine than in Any Month Since June 2024, the Agentstvo News Agency Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 31 – Moscow’s claims that Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine and that Ukrainian ones are retreating have been so widely broadcast that many fail to recognize the reality that Russia’s invasion gained only 130 square kilometers in the last month, down from a high of 725 last November and the least since June 2024 when Russia seized 114.
    Those figures, originally gathered by the Deep State analysts, are presented in a charge published by the Agentstvo news agency, a group of independent journalists in the Russian Federation (agents.media/v-marte-rossiya-zahvatila-v-ukraine-samuyu-malenkuyu-territoriyu-s-iyunya-proshlogo-goda-vopreki-zayavleniyam-putina/).
    The numbers from the past month parallel those from March 2024 and suggest that Ukraine is holding its own despite Russian claims and despite a reduction in the amount of arms transferred to Kyiv by Western powers. If this seasonal pattern holds, so should Ukraine’s front lines until at least August.  
    Moreover, at the current rate, it would take Russian forces many years before occupying all of its neighbor

Russians Attracted to Pro-Regime Media Outlets in Part Because They Offer More Positive Messages, CEDAR Study Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 31 – Telegram channels are today one of the main platforms for political information in Russia, with half of Russians every day and nearly three out of four every month using them. Moreover, according to surveys, 55 percent of the top 100 telegram channels deal one way or another with current events or political news.
    Indeed, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has declared that telegram channels are “the main source for receiving information” in Russia, a remarkable rise over just the last several years (https://t.me/kommersant/79903; and for data on this remarkable development, see mediascope.net/upload/iblock/2ee/bdbcymunn4gcxjwcgjgjzsw74nrqtmz6/Mediascope_%D0%9D%D0%A0%D0%A4_Telegram.pdf).
    But despite this growth and influence, Russia’s telegram channels have remained relatively little studied up to now. But research by the Center for Data and Research on Russia (CEDAR) has gone a long way to fill this gap and to explain why some telegram channels attract more visitors than others (cedarus.io/research/what-do-russians-read?lang=ru).
    Using content analysis, surveys, and focus groups, CEDAR draws the following conclusions about why some telegram channels attract more readers than others and what those now lagging might do to catch up. Specifically, it says
•    Forty-four percent of those reading telegram channels in Russia read pro-government outlets, while only 14 percent read those associated with the opposition.
•    In addition to these two categories, there are also “neutral” channels which focus on the economy, emergencies, health news, food and science.
•    Opposition media covers a narrower range of issues than do the other two.
•    Channels which have more positive content tend to be more popular not among these groups but within them. Pro-government channels present Russia more positively and that is an attraction.
•    Popularity is not a function of the emotional tone of the channels nor is the share of coverage of the war in Ukraine.
Drawing on these findings, CEDAR recommends that those neutral and opposition outlets which want to attract more people need to cover more different topics, focus on “everyday issues” like the economy, emergencies and health. And they need to play up positive content rather than always be negative. 

For First Time Ever, More Muslims Marked End of Ramadan in St. Petersburg than Did in the Russian Capital, Statistics Show

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 31 – Muslims in the Russian Federation usually celebrate Id al-Fitr, the holiday that marks the holy month of Ramadan, by assembling in and around mosques. Until this year, Moscow, the city where the largest number of Muslims in that country live, has led these statistics; but this year, the northern capital St. Petersburg surpassed it.
    In Moscow. statistics gathered by Muslim organizations show, some 235,000 Muslims assembled at the city’s five mosques, including 80,000 at the Central Cathedral Mosque; but in St. Petersburg, where the number of Muslims is far smaller, more than 300,000 came out (ng.ru/faith/2025-03-30/3_9223_muslims.html).
    The number of Muslims in Moscow visiting mosques on this holiday in fact rose from 205,000 last year; but the figure for Muslims in St. Petersburg rose more rapidly. In reporting these statistics, Nezavisimaya Gazeta suggested that they may reflect greater anti-immigrant actions by the police in Moscow than in St. Petersburg.
    That is likely a part of the explanation, but this pattern highlights the fact that an increasing share of Muslims arriving in major Russian cities is going to St. Petersburg rather than to Moscow where anti-immigrant feelings have been more regularly whipped up by the authorities and that the northern capital is on its way to becoming a major center of Muslim life.
    That in turn means that the Muslim Spiritual Directorates (MSDs) both based in the northern capital and represented there are going to be ever more important and deserve at least as much attention as is routinely given to their counterparts in Moscow because in Islam, the number of participants in holiday celebrations is perhaps the best indication of influence.  

New Law on Local Administration Leaves Population with Almost No Way to Participate in Political Life, ‘Horizontal Russia’ Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – The new law on local self-administration adopted earlier this month leaves the Russian population with “almost no levers to influence local policies,” the Horizontal Russia portal says, because it gives governors the power to disband existing rural districts and recombine them at will.
    Consequently, the portal says, people in the government of those districts are on an increasingly short leash; and the population can only “write the governor, appeal to Putin, or hope for good luck” (semnasem.org/articles/2025/03/26/samoupravlenie-bylo-s-novym-zakonom-u-rossiyan-pochti-ne-ostanetsya-sposobov-vliyat-na-lokalnuyu-politiku).
    Horizontal Russia details seven cases in which governors have already used their powers against local self-administration and then suggests that while the old system of self-administration often failed to work because of a lack of money, it at least gave citizens the ability to organize politically and act in concert to defend their rights and interests.
    That made a major contribution to the development of civic political culture, Yuliya Galyamina, a former deputy in a district in the Moscow suburbs says. But the Russian government’s “reform” means that “the authorities no longer have to be concerned about the participation of citizens in local politics.”
    Sixteen federal subjects including Moscow and St. Petersburg have already gone alone with the change the law calls for (vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2025/03/04/1095775-18-regionov-ne-hotyat), and 26 more say they will do so in the near future. But this transition isn’t going smoothly, and there have been protests in several places (t.me/horizontal_russia/30444).  
    Seventeen federal subjects have announced that they want to retain the two levels of governance. The majority of these are the non-Russian republics, Horizontal Russia says. This reflects the fact that local communities there are stronger and that messing with existing arrangements could destabilize the situation.
    A less important but nonetheless significant factor is that in many non-Russian republics, particular local districts may be far from the capital and difficult for officials to reach, let alone manage on a regular basis without the help of local officials. Then they will be forced to behave in an even more authoritarian manner and work to further depoliticize the population.

Moscow Further Tilts the Scales Against Those Charged with Crimes to Ensure It Collects Fines and Exercises Greater Leverage over Businesses and Individuals

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 31 – The Russian government has tightened the courts as far as criminal charges are concerned to the point that the number of individuals and organizations exonerated after hearings has been reduced to the vanishing point. But those figures involve only those who actually go to trial or avoid having their cases dismissed on technicalities
.    Now, in order to ensure that the government collects massive fines against individuals and organizations who in the past were able to avoid convictions because of errors by investigators and prosecutors, the Russian justice ministry is planning to allow the government to correct any mistakes such officials make and allow trials to proceed.
    In the past, technical errors by officials were enough in many cases to have the cases tossed in court, not only giving the Russian government a loss but costing it income from fines and otherwise reducing the impact of its charges (moscowtimes.ru/2025/03/31/v-pravitelstve-potrebovali-sokratit-dolyu-opravdatelnih-prigovorov-rossiyanam-a159608).
    This latest move further tilts the scales against those charged with crimes and thus is consistent with the Putin regime’s efforts to make the courts function as reliably as other parts of the power vertical. But it seems to be driven in the first instance by a calculation that this will allow the government to convict businesses and thus collect more money in fines.
    At the very least, the threat of such collections will give the Kremlin additional leverage against businesses, other organizations and individuals as the regime moves from authoritarianism toward totalitarianism and does so not by improving administration but by protecting the regime from losing in court. .  

Kremlin’s New Demography Strategy Document Calls for Spending Enormous Sums but Not for Slowing Russia's Population Decline, Demographers Say

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – With much pomp, the Kremlin has released a new strategy document on family and demographic policy for the next decade; but unfortunately, Moscow demographer Yury Krupnov says, it has “no relation to demography” and thus, even if followed to the letter, will have little impact on Russia’s demographic decline.
    The senior scholar at the Moscow Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development says that what goals the document talks about aren’t about increasing the birthrate. Rather, it is at best “a strategy of the withering away” of the Russian nation with the Kremlin serving as its funeral staff (nakanune.ru/articles/123323/).
    Other independent demographers queried by Nakanune journalist Yevgeny Chernyshov agree.  Inna Gorslavtseva, one who advises the Moscow Patriarchate, says that what the strategy demonstrates is that “the powers that be do not have any idea what to do” and thus have adopted “a strategy of inaction.”
    What that means, she continues, is that the Kremlin is clearly counting on “replacing” the existing Russian population with migrants from one part of the world or another, something Russians fear and that almost all of them oppose.  A view Yury Pronko of Tsargrad television shares.
    And Pavel Pohigaylo, deputy head of the Social Chamber’s commission on demography, says that what is truly horrific is how much the Kremlin says it will spend to get such a horrific result: 17 trillion rubles (170 billion US dollars) to preside over the decline of the Russian population over the next decade by five million people.

Moscow Plans to Restrict Ability of Russians to Seek Medical Treatment beyond Their Own Region of Residence

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – Even as Putin’s closure of numerous medical facilities across the country to save money for his war in Ukraine has reduced access to care for many Russians, the Russian health ministry now is planning to restrict such access still further, a move that will mean ever more Russians who have the most serious diseases will suffer and die.
    Up to now, Russians who want to go to another part of the country for treatment of cancer or other serious diseases need get  only the recommendation of their local doctor. But as of September, if current plans hold, they will have to receive the approval of special medical boards (medvestnik.ru/content/news/V-Rossii-hotyat-ujestochit-usloviya-polucheniya-specializirovannoi-medpomoshi-v-drugom-regione.html).
    These bodies can be counted on to be less supportive of applications than the personal doctors of those suffering from various illnesses. Like Putin’s healthcare “optimization” program, that will save the Russian government money but only at the cost of increasing suffering in regions far from Moscow or other major centers.
    Because this suffering and deaths will take place far from the capital and thus can be obscured from an all-Russian audience, the Kremlin is likely to assume that it will get away with this latest “cost-saving” measure.  But it is entirely possible that this latest form of medical serfdom will spark a backlash especially among opposition political activists.
    If that happens, it will be only the latest example of the Putin regime shooting itself in the foot, a pattern that challenges the widely held view that the Kremlin incumbent is a master politician. He has succeeded against the West and at home up to now, but the chances he will be able to continue to do so, at least with regard to Russia itself are declining.  

Number of Russians Living in Poverty Really Falling but by Far Less than Moscow Claims, ‘To Be Precise’ Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – In recent years, the number and share of Russians living in poverty has fallen, largely as a result of changes in the economy as a result of the covid pandemic and Putin’s war in Ukraine; but these figures have fallen by far less than Moscow claims, according to an investigation by the To Be Precise portal.
    Last year, Rosstat, the Russian government’s statistical arm, undercounted the poor in Russia by 2.4 million, an outcome that it achieved by changing the definition of poverty. Had the previous definitions and the statistics supporting them been used, the number of poor would have fallen but by far less than Moscow claims (tochno.st/materials/vypali-iz-statistiki-rosstata-v-2024-godu).
    To Be Precise provides a detailed discussion of this statistical sleight of hand that is important both for those concerned about the actual level of poverty in Russia and for those who use Russian statistics more generally, Quite often, the portal says, the figures Moscow provides are accurate in terms of the definitions used but these definitions keep changing.  
    Over the last four years alone, Rosstat has changed the definitions it uses and so is able to offer statistics which conform to the Kremlin’s desires, not by open falsification but by statistical sleight of hand – and this is something that with each passing year of the Putin regime, students of that country must take into increasing attention. 

Moscow to Expand Effort to Defend Rights of Russian Compatriots in Baltic Countries

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – The Russian foreign ministry together with the Moscow Foundation for the Support and Defense of Compatriots Living Abroad has put together plans for improving the defense of citizens of the Russian Federation as well as other ethnic Russians living in the Baltic countries.
    That was the message delivered by various speakers at a conference in Kaliningrad this week on “The Status of Russian Compatriots in the Countries of the Baltic Region” (vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2025/03/28/1100787-rossiya-namerena-uluchshit-zaschitu-sootechestvennikov-v-stranah-pribaltiki).
    Aleksandr Udaltsov, the head of the Foundation for the Support and Defense of Compatriots, said that such an effort was needed because pressure on such people by the Baltic governments was intensifying and existing means of seeking to defend these people via international human rights groups no longer work.
    Among the steps participants called for are the preparation of a list of violations of the rights of Russians in the Baltic countries, a more precise definition of compatriot so that people in that category will know what they can expect, and an expanded effort by official agencies and NGOs in Russia to defend compatriots abroad in general and in the Baltic region in particular.
    These moves are clearly in preparation for a larger Kremlin effort against the Baltic countries and thus merit attention even if the steps the Kaliningrad meeting outlined seem anodyne.

Ukrainian Government Calls on Nations of the World to Recognize Circassian Genocide

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Mar. 28 – In conformity with a January 2025 resolution passed by the Verkhhovna Rada and despite all the challenges Kyiv now faces, Denys Shmygal, Ukraine’s prime minister, has approved a message to all countries of the world to recognize what the Russian government did to the Circassians in the 19th century as an act of genocide.
    Shmygal signed an order specifying that such an appeal will “help raise awareness about the genocide of the Circassian (Adyghe) people, as well as other crimes committed by the Russian Empire, by disseminating knowledge about such crimes in educational and research programs” (kmu.gov.ua/npas/pro-zvernennia-do-uriadiv-derzhav-svitu-shchodo-spryiannia-pidvyshchenniu-rivnia-s270280325).
    His words represent a serious political victory by Circassian organizations who have sought such a declaration for more than a decade and equally important a reaffirmation of Kyiv’s commitment to support peoples within the current borders of the Russian Federation who have been and continue to be oppressed by Moscow.  
    For background on the Circassian effort and Ukrainian moves to support it and other national movements inside the Russian Federation, see  windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/01/ukrainian-parliament-declares-russian.htmlm windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/11/kyiv-now-reaching-out-to-circassian.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2024/08/ukraine-set-to-adopt-comprehensive.html.)