Afghan Islamists Attack Chinese Nationals in Tajikistan

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Nov. 24 – For the first time, Afghan militants connected with the Islamic State have attacked Chinese citizens in Tajikistan following a declaration that such attacks are in response to Beijing’s policies in Xinjiang and represent the beginning of “an anti-Chinese jihad,” Andrey Serenko says.
    The attack took place on Nov. 18 near the Afghan-Tajik border where Chinese specialists are helping the Tajiks to develop a gold mine, the Nezavisimaya Gazeta journalist says. According to Tajik officials, one Chinese worker was killed and four wounded; according to unofficial reports, these numbers were far higher (ng.ru/kartblansh/2024-11-24/3_9141_kb.html).
    Serenko says that the Islamists came into Tajikistan from Afghanistan and then returned there, a sign that “to put it mildly, there are very serious shortcomings in the protection of the state border” between the two countries. He doesn’t mention that Russian forces play a key role in protecting that border and have clearly failed in this case.    
    This is not the first time that Afghan militants have crossed the border and attacked Chinese citizens, but it is the first time that a group identifying itself with the Islamic State and promising to launch a jihad against China has done so, something that raises the stakes of what has just happened.
    China already has a significant security presence in Tajikistan, both in direct support of Dushanbe and in the form of PMCs. Up to now, it has shared responsibility for security there with Russia; but this latest attack could easily tip that balance and lead to an expanded Chinese presence along the Afghan border.
    For background on those possibilities, which could prove explosive, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/08/chinese-private-military-companies-now.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/10/china-increasing-its-military-presence.html and jamestown.org/program/russia-china-dividing-responsibilities-in-tajikistan-is-conflict-possible/.