Adenauer’s Opposition to a United Germany in the 1920s Should be Recalled by Both Those Denounced as Wanting to Dismember Russia and Those Doing Such Denunciations, Eidman Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – It is often forgotten that in the 1920s, Germany was divided between those who favored breaking it up into a number of separate states and those who favored a united and indivisible Russia. Konrad Adenauer, the mayor of Cologne and later chancellor of West Germany, was one of the former; Hitler, one of the latter.

            In a comment on his telegram channel, Igor Eidman says that had Adenauer succeeded in his plan for a separate Rhenist Republic, the world would have been spared the horrors of Nazism and the tragedy of World War II (t.me/igoreidman/3116 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/raschlenitel-adenauer-ili-raspad-kak-spasenie).

            That is because had those like Adenauer won out, something that did not happen because they were accused by many Germans, including the Nazis, for seeking to “dismember” Germany, “Hitler simply would not have had a unified Germany he could seize power and World War II in all likelihood would never have occurred.”

            After that conflict, Eidman continues, Adenauer “operated within the framework of the Allied decision to create a unified Western Germany,” but “he did so reluctantly and did not favor a rapid reunification with East Germany, a territory that notably included the greater part of historical Prussia,” fearing that such a combination would be militarist and imperialist.

            “By the time Germany reunified under Kohl, that threat no longer existed: the country had traveled a long path from imperial militarism and systemic nationalism to a stable democracy.”  And Adenauer,  denounced in the 1920s as a “dismemberer of Germany” is now a hero while his opponents then are “reviled as Nazi collaborators.”

            Russians today should remember this history because “present-day Russia, much like Germany in the first half of the 20^th century poses an existential threat to the outside world and to itself,” Eidman says, “The collapse of its empire is inevitable;” and the sooner it happens, the better and safer it will be for the world, for Europe, and for Russians as well.”

            Both those Russians now being denounced as dismemberers of Russia and those other Russians engaging in such denunciations need to remember that, Eidman suggests, as do others who may think that this conflict has nothing to do with them and thus they should favor temporary stability above all else.   

Over Last 30 Years, Caspian Sea has Declined in Size by an Area the Size of Sicily and People around It are Getting Sick, ‘Kedr’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – In the course of the last three decades, the Caspian Sea has declined in size by an area the size of Sicily and is projected to lose roughly a third of its current surface area by the end of this century, something with consequences all too like those which preceded the death of the Aral Sea in Central Asia.

            Many ports are now far from the coast, and many ships that had plied the waters of the Caspian are now rusting away far from water, the Kedr portal says. But most seriously, experts say, this retreat in the shoreline of that sea just as was the case with the Aral is having a negative impact on the health of the people around it (kedr.media/stories/cherty-umirayushhego-morya/).

            That is because various mineral and biological deposits that had been safely under water are now exposed and being spread into populated areas by the winds, a development that is likely to lead to a sharp increase in diseases like cancer just as has been the case with the death of the Aral Sea and the health of the people of Karakalpakstan in particular.

            Unfortunately, despite these dangers, the littoral states have been unable to reach agreement on what to do. Indeed, they are still divided between those, mostly in Russia, who think that the sea will make a comeback and that there is no need for expensive new programs; and those in the other littoral states who are convinced that is delusional.

            If that deadlock is not resolved and soon, something that at the moment seems extremely improbable, then the Caspian is on course to follow the Aral into oblivion, with the economic situation and health of the populations of the littoral states certain to suffer in significant ways in the coming years. 

Even Governors Imposed by Moscow Now Being Compelled to Choose Echo of Parade of Sovereignties to Forestall Unrest, Rybakova Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 14 – Given the restrictions various federal subject governments are imposing on the sale of gasoline, ever more commentators are drawing parallels with the parade of sovereignties in the late 1980s and early 1990s when regions introduced similar restrictions and their own currencies and even border posts.

            Most doubt that things can go as far this time around given that the center is far stronger than it was and the governors are not popularly elected with local support but selected and imposed by the Kremlin, but Tatyana Rybakova argues those differences may not be sufficient to block a new parade of sovereignties (nemoskva.net/2026/07/14/regiony-ogorazhivayutsya/).

            It is sometimes forgotten, the NeMoskva commentator says, that the original parade of sovereignties reflected not just the desire for freedom but also to prevent a social explosion that many feared would occur because of food shortages and the declining ability of Moscow to control the situation.

            At that time, Rybakova continues, “the central government was young, democratic and shaky;” and “the heads of the regions were much stronger politically,” elected rather than appointed and thus more ready to take action in defense of their voters than in support of Moscow.

            Today, the situation is different. Moscow is stronger and governors weaker; and many assume that because that is so, no new parade of sovereignties based on gas shortages rather than food shortages is possible, she says. But there are compelling reasons to think that such a conclusion may prove to be wrong.

            The governors are facing both their own budget deficits and unhappy populations, and while Moscow can send prosecutors, it is no longer in a position to send money or the kind of assistance that would calm the population, at least not without a wholesale transformation of Kremlin policy.

            As a result, even the most ostensibly loyal governors are beginning to speak out and try to defend their populations by the kind of steps that led to rise of the parade of sovereignties a generation ago.  In such a situation, Rybakova says, the governors are increasingly forced to choose “between popular revolt and Kremlin discontent.”

            And unless there are major changes in Moscow’s approach, she says, “it is only a question of time” until at least some governors will choose to try to forestall a revolt at home rather than to worry about a negative reaction from the Kremlin, all the more so because the center installed them to keep things quiet.

            The situation has now reached the point where Moscow’s inability or unwillingness to help the regional governments means that even the most loyal governors are driven by the logic of the situation to try to mollify the population, an effort that could trigger a new parade of sovereignties far more easily and quickly than many suspect. 

Russia’s Gas Shortage Not Only Boosting Inflation and Reducing Harvests But Also Limiting Road Repairs, ‘Moscow Times’ Reports

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – The gas shortages Russians are facing because of Ukraine’s drone attacks on refineries are not only sparking anger directly but fears because they are also boosting inflation and reducing the ability of farmers to bring in harvests, something that may lead to declines in exports and even domestic shortages of food.

            But now they are facing yet another crisis, one that will affect Russians both directly and indirectly.  The fuel shortages are limiting the ability of firms to repair Russia’s roads this summer, The Moscow Times reports (ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/13/letnii-remont-dorog-v-rossii-okazalsya-pod-ugrozoi-sriva-iz-za-defitsita-dizelya-a200654).

            According to the paper, there is a great danger that this additional problem will metasticize into additional ones if road repair companies can’t get loans to buy more expensive bitumen and diesel fuel, noting that the National Association of Infrastructure Companies has called for the government to compensate these firms or face a difficult future.

            Hard-pressed by the ballooning costs of Putin’s war in Ukraine, the Russian government is unlikely to do so; and as a result, roads that no one is repairing will join all the other problems that the successful Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure have achieved so far, sparking more anger among Russians and more difficulties for their rulers.

Moscow, Convinced ‘Violence is Main Way to Solve Any Problem,’ has Little Interest in Limiting It in the Home, Women’s Rights Lawyer Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – During its current term, the Duma, at the insistence of the Russian Government, has rejected all six attempts to pass laws limiting violence in the family. Most analysts point to the Kremlin’s commitment to traditional values and the influence of the Russian Orthodox Church.

            But according to a lawyer who specializes on women’s issues, speaking to Horizontal Russia on condition of anonymity, the real reason is broader, deeper and even more disturbing: the regime doesn’t want to do anything that undermines its belief that ‘violence is the main way to solve problems” (semnasem.org/articles/2026/07/13/gde-zhenshinam-na-rusi-zhit-horosho).

            The lawyer argues that “it is important to understand that violence in the family, society and in the state is very connected.  If the state believes that violence is the main way to solve problems” – and that is clearly the case under Putin – “then we will not see any effective work of the authorities with domestic violence.”

After all, she continues, “for society to approve of interstate violence or violence of the state towards its citizens, it should generally be tolerant of violence. And if a person has grown up in a family where violence is unacceptable, he will naturally not be tolerant of any form. Therefore, it is not profitable for the state to create a culture of rejection of violence.”

Her words come at the end of a 7,000 word article summarizing research conducted by Horizontal Russia about the conditions of women across the Russian Federation and the attitudes of officials and the population to the situation women in that country find themselves in at the present time.

Among the key findings of this research are the following:

·       In regions where women are treated less well, they are 50 to 100 percent more likely to give birth as teenage girls, 50 to 150 percent less likely to graduate from at least nine years of school and die two to five years earlier than are those in the country as a whole. In regions where women are doing better, the reverse is true. 

·       Russian women in the worst regions are significantly  more likely to be victims of violent crime in general and sexualized violence in particular.

·       Differences in income explain some of these differences but far from all. In some regions with higher incomes, crime against women is higher than in others where women have lower incomes.

Kremlin and FSB Control of Senior Military Appointments Behind Failure of Russian Military in Ukraine, Focus Groups of Retired Officers Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 13 – Senior officers are now chosen not by their colleagues in the army but by the Kremlin and the FSB with the result being that those on top are selected because of their loyalty to the country’s leader rather than their professional competence. Not surprisingly, that has proved disastrous in the conduct of military operations.

            According to Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speech writer and now a Putin critic, that conclusion is offered by focus groups consisting of retired Russian army officers who are well familiar with the problem and want there to be changes (vot-tak.tv/94315382/armiya-i-kreml-gallyamov).

            Those who oppose Putin, the commentator says, need to support the de-politicization of military promotions, a step that would be good for the country and popular with the military, Gallyamov says. Otherwise, the Russian army will continue to do poorly and eventually there will be yet another Prigozhin mutiny, perhaps one that will be more successful than the first.  

             Gallyamov does not provide any details about who organized these focus groups, who took part, and when they occurred. But the attitudes he reports are entirely plausible given the Russian military's traditional anger at having the politicians override the professionals when it comes to appointing senior commanders and giving orders.  

Putin Right to Call for the Russian People to Endure Ukrainian Drone Attacks but Dangerously Wrong to Act as if Elites Don’t Have To, Pastukhov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 12 – Putin and his regime are “completely correct” in calling for Russians to show patience in enduring the current wave of Ukrainian drone attacks, Vladimir Pastukhov says; but he and his colleagues are dangerously wrong to then act as if that appeal doesn’t apply to them.

            Russian elites are able to get gasoline when others cannot and to avoid sending their sons to fight in Ukraine when the offspring of others are not able to do the same, the London-based Russian analyst says (t.me/v_pastukhov/1952 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/poterpet-oni-predlagayut-drugim-a-ne-sebe).

            During World War II, members of the elite, including Stalin’s own children, fought in the war and all suffered from the shortages and risks; but now, the Putin regime is calling on Russians as a whole to suffer but not showing any willingness for its own members to do the same, Pastukhov says.

            That pattern risks triggering “a sense of class hatred,” with those being encouraged to endure saying that those doing the encouraging aren’t willing to endure the same things.  This all started, of course, a decade ago when Russians were told “there is no money but you need to hold on.” Now the situation is far worse because it is far more obvious. 

September Duma Elections Won’t Be Much Different than Those in 2021, Kynyev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – The upcoming Duma elections are likely to resemble the ones held in 2021, according to Aleksandr Kynyev, an independent political scientist who has now released a 51-page report with nine conclusions supporting his overall judgment about why the upcoming vote is not going change the Russian political system in any major way.

            One of the most thoughtful commentators about regional politics in the Russian Federation says, as his first conclusion, that the September voting will “continue a steqdy trend towards the contraction of political competition” (disk.yandex.ru/d/MoE3bjyo4qEyIQ summarized at ru.themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/10/stabilnost-ili-modifitsirovannii-status-kvo-a20052).

            His second conclusion is that there will be a sharp decline in the total number of elections, largely because of the elimination of elected municipal councils. His third is that there will be 11 gubernatorial elections, an increase in only one from 2021. His fourth is that the trend toward the appointment of outsiders as governors will continue.        

            Kynyev’s fifth conclusion is that there won’t be a radical reduction in the share of seats elected on the proportional system. His sixth is that what is going on reflects Moscow’s striving for stability. His seventh is that more parties will cooperate in groups, thus further limiting competition and representation of various interests.

            The political scientist’s eighth conclusion based on his survey of regional elections is that with only one exception, the permitted size of spending on elections  won’t change. And the ninth is that ever more regions are now allowing the collection of signatures on nominating petitions via online public service platforms.

Melnichenko’s Message No Different than the One Putin has Been Delivering for Some Time, Parkhomenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 11 – Sergey Melnichenko’s article in The Economist is being widely discussed in both Russia and the West as an alternative vision of the future; but in fact, Sergey Parkhomenko says, it is “quintessentially Putinesque” and almost certainly was “crafted” in the Kremlin itself. 

            According to the commentator, Putin is indeed seeking “alternative channels of communication” given the shortcomings of his current messengers but his message remains unchanged—and the Russian oligarch in the British publication has “conveyed all his terms” (t.me/sparkhomenkovoice/3916 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/eto-sovershenno-putinskoe-poslanie).

            Parkhomenko argues that “the key phrase” in the  article, one Putin has used before, is this:  “the choice for external players is not between a friendly Russia and a hostile one. It is between a Russia whose behavior is predictable and a Russia whose trajectory is unknown. In the world now taking shape, predictability matters more than likability."

            Such logic is “very primitive,” Parkhomenko continues, “however much it is all dressed up in complex jargon and convoluted sentences.” And it has only one meaning: The Russian ruler “wants to survive and he hopes to somehow wriggle out [of his current difficulties] and hold on to power.”

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Prompt Kremlin to Ram Through Law Loosening Controls on Weapons and Night Vision Devices

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – In the weeks since Ukraine expanded its drone attacks on Russia, the Kremlin has rammed through a new law, introduced on June 4 and signed by Putin on July 4, loosing restrictions on ownership of guns and night vision thermal imaging devices.

            This loosening of restrictions had long been sought by Russian gun owners, but it has taken place, they and their supporters say, only in response to the Ukrainian attacks and the Russian army’s inability to stop them (echofm.online/news/putin-podpisal-popravki-v-zakon-ob-oruzhii-chto-eto-znachit).

            It follows another legal innovation in March, one that also is related to the war in Ukraine and reverses Moscow’s policies on guns, which is allowing private firms to acquire military-grade weaponry to defend their facilities from drone attacks (t.me/echoonline_news/23487 and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/05/moscows-failure-to-block-drone-attacks.html).

            These legal changes will lead to a growing influx of guns into the hands of ordinary Russians, a trend that will make it more likely that those who commit crimes will use weapons to do so and thus make the job of the Russian police far more difficult than it has been in the past (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/08/fsb-raids-underground-armament-firms-in.html).  

Russia No Longer on Demographic Roller Coaster But on What is Now a Permanent Decline, Krupnov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – In the decades after World War II, Russia’s demographic trajectory had long been on a roller coaster trajectory with larger and smaller generations following each other in ever decreasing echoes of the enormous losses of women of childbearing age during that conflict, Yury Krupnov says.

            But not that pattern is over, the Moscow demographer says, and been replaced by a long-term if not permanent decline with the waves that had been true in the past no longer significant compared with the decline in fertility rates as a result of modernization and urbanization (business-gazeta.ru/article/706478).

            This has been true in fact since 1964, he argues; but neither the Soviet nor the Russian leadership has recognized this demographic catastrophe, preferring both in the past and again now to assume that somehow the current demographic “pit” will give way on its own to a demographic boom.

            That isn’t going to happen, and the consequences in terms of demography, economics, and national security are immense and will only increase with time.  And because these are so great, it is time to stop assuming the band aid measures like giving bonuses to women who have children will work.

            If the birthrate is to grow again – and that is nothing that is going to happen on its own, Krupnov says – the Russian government must commit itself not only to creating an economic situation in which people will want to have children but promoting an ideology that having a large family is good for them and for their country.

            Those are enormous tasks and will take large amounts of money and may not succeed given the trend to single child or child free couples; but unless it is recognized that if they do not succeed, Russia will be depopulated and can hardly expect to remain in a position to control its enormous land. 

New Ukrainian Study Says Eight out of Ten Russian Regions Capable of Rapidly Becoming Independent Countries Once Moscow Collapses

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Eight of the ten republics and regions in the Russian Federation that Ukrainian scholars have examined are capable of rapidly transforming themselves into independent countries once the imperial center in Moscow collapses, according to a new report on the prospects for their independence discussed at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy.  

            Valery Pekar, head of the Decolonization organization and one of the authors of the report, observed that Moscow “constantly uses arguments about the economic, humanitarian, political and other shortcomings of its own regions to justify its colonial policies” (abn.org.ua/en/analysis/arguments-for-decolonization-of-russia/).

              But notes that UN Resolution 1514 of December 1960 explicitly states that “insufficient economic or political readiness cannot be used as a reason to postpone independence” and urges that everyone look beyond Moscow’s arguments regarding how “prepared” Russia’s regions and republics are to stand on their own.

              According to another author of the republic, Ukrainian economist Andriy Dligach, the widely reported insolvency of Russia’s regions is Not a natural fact but a constructed reality” because “a region can receive more from the center than it earns” not because it is poor but because of the disproportionate “rents” Moscow extracts.

              The Ukrainian scholars selected ten regions for the first “wave” of this study: Ingria, Kuban, Oirat-Kalmykia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, the Urals, Komi, Siberia, Sakha-Yakutia, and Buryatia, a deliberately “diverse” group of rich and poor, northern and southern, large and small, non-Russian and ethnic Russian, and with high and low protest activity.

              The Ukrainian team examined each of these in terms of “three indices of regional well-being: economic, humanitarian and political” and concluded that all ten could exist independently once Moscow disappears as the imperial center and that “at least eight … are capable of quickly transitioning to independence.

According to the Ukrainian investigators, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Buryatia, and the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) have “the highest political capacity” to move quickly to independence.  But others can follow because the money and fear that Moscow has used to hold things together are both quicky running out.

But the report doesn’t idealize the future. According to Pekar,  “some states will embark on the path to democracy. Others will become democratic republics. Still others may turn into dictatorships.” After all, that has been the experience of Ukraine and other non-Russians who escaped Russian rule in 1991. Others who do now will be the same.

Moscow’s Plans to Boost Russian Presence on Svalbard Compromised by Lack of Ships Qualified to Sail there, Artikugol Director Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – To counter Western moves in the Arctic and to expand Russian influence there, Moscow has announced programs to bring as many as 50,000 tourists from the Russian Federation to Norway’s Svalbard archipelago; but a senior Russian businessman there says that Russia currently lacks the ships capable of doing so.

            Ildar Neverov, head of Artikugol, the Russian coal mining enterprise there, has told TASS that Russia currently lacks enough ice-capable passenger ships to carry out that plan, a situation he hopes Moscow will overcome (tass.ru/ekonom, ika/27904085 and ru.thebarentsobserver.com/novosti/artikugol-hocet-rassirit-turizm-na-svalbarde-no-ispytyvaet-nehvatku-podhodasih-sudov/453545).

            Planes are not enough, he says, because none come directly from Russia and thus there are visa problems as well as capacity; and the number of ships available is far too small to handle anything like the number of tourists and workers for the coal mines that Moscow would like to see in Svalbard in the future.

            What represents an especially serious problem, he suggests, is that many of the ships now being used are more than 40 years old and thus do not have the electronic systems that can protect them against icebergs, a requirement since Moscow’s icebreaker fleet is committed elsewhere, and Russian yards are not now building the needed passenger ships.

            For background on Russia’s plans to use tourism as part of an effort to project Russian power in Svalbard, see windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2026/06/moscow-organizes-summer-school-in.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2025/11/moscow-plans-to-build-infrastructure-on.html.

Russian Foreign Ministry Denies Moscow Planning to Re-Introduce Soviet-Style Exit Permits

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Among the most highly valued rights that Russians gained with the collapse of the Soviet system was the right to travel abroad at will rather than having to get the permission of the authorities to do so. Consequently, any report that Moscow is planning to reintroduce such a system draws angry denials.

            This week, the We Can Explain telegram channel said that its sources in the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Presidential Administration said that such restrictions were under discussion and preparing to take just such a step (t.me/mozhemobyasnit/23637 and echofm.online/news/rossijskij-mid-gotovit-zakonoproekt-o-vvedenii-vyezdnyh-viz-mozhem-obyasnit).

            That report immediately drew an angry reaction from the foreign ministry which described it as classic disinformation by foreign agents and pointing out that it had been disseminated only by outlets  that had been identified as working for Russia’s enemies (https://www.rbc.ru/politics/10/07/2026/6a50ee639a7947707e6d98ed).

            But despite that denial, many Russians are likely to be disturbed by the initial reports especially as they suggested that the Kremlin planned to introduce it gradually so as to test the waters and to present such restrictions as part of a Russian government effort to “protect” Russians who might travel abroad.

            According to the We Can Explain portal, “the proposal is that tourists from the Russian Federation would only be able to travel to 'unfriendly' countries (NATO nations) in groups of at least 10 people, accompanied by a guide and following an approved itinerary. This will be presented as a measure 'for the safety of Russian citizens.'"

            Presumably, if the reports are true, the Russian government will gradually tighten the system and require exit visas for Russians who want to travel to any country and not just NATO member states. But even if they are not, such stories will increase both the fears and angers of the Russian population about what the Kremlin intends.

Marxism Triumphed First in Russia Because Its Core Value, the Denial of Freedom, was ‘Characteristic of Russian National Consciousness,’ Tsipko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 9 – Many Moscow commentators and politicians are suggesting that Russia’s future should involve the restoration of the Soviet system, a view that reflects their ignorance of what Soviet Marxism was about, how many different forms it took, and why it ultimately failed, Aleksandr Tsipko says.

            Typically, the senior Russian political commentator says, advocates of a return to the Soviet past “do not say which socialism we should return to,” something important because of the enormous differences between Stalin’s socialism and Khrushchev’s (mk.ru/social/2026/07/09/nazad-k-socializmu-chto-stoit-za-prizyvami-vernut-sovremennuyu-rossiyu-v-proshloe.html).

            For some reason, those calling for a return to Soviet socialism “never say anything good about Khrushchevian socialism.” Instead, they routinely insist that “the tragedy is that Khrushchev began to reform the Soviet system as created by Stalin and therefore allegedly opened the way to the death of the USSR.”

            “All the currently fashionable ideologists who are calling for a return to socialism do not take into account that, as Marx insisted, a socialist economy is to be build on the principle of militarization” and the authoritarianism needed to keep the system in that state, Tsipko continues.

            One reason that Stalinist socialism is so attractive to such people is that the Marxist “utopia,” with “its denial of freedom, morality and the value of human” are congruent with “our native Russian nationalism.” That is why it was in Russia that Bolshevism arose in that country and why the Soviets were the first to try to realize the ideas of Marx.

            Soviet socialism survived as long as it did, the commentator says, largely because it was imperfect. It was saved by the private plots of peasants who raised much of the country’s food and by the sale of oil and other natural resources abroad. When the latter failed to bring in enough money, the entire house of cards collapsed.

            Anyone who seriously wants to advocate Russia’s return to Soviet-style socialism, Tsipko says, needs to address these questions and ask himself and others seriously whether Russians really want to go through another cycle of repression, suffering and ultimately collapse.

            Although the fact that Marxist utopianism and Russian national consciousness have so much in common is clearly the reason why there are so many advocates in Moscow today for the revival of such a disastrous project, the senior Russian commentator who lived most of his life in Soviet times suggests.

Permafrost Melting Seen Increasing Radioactive Contamination of Ob and Irtysh Rivers

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 9 – Research by the Russian Academy of Sciences shows that the radioactive contamination of the Ob and Irtysh, high after the Soviets began testing nuclear weapons in the area, has fallen to acceptable levels but says that the melting of the permafrost as a result of global warming is leading to its increase again.

            In what they describe as the  first comprehensive analysis of radiation contamination of these two Siberian rivers, the scholars say that there is a real danger that the progress Russia has achieved in cutting radiation may be overwhelmed by the impact of the melting of permafrost.

            (For a discussion the findings of this research project and citations to the three original articles the investigators published earlier this year, see caspian.land/37386-vpervye-proveden-kompleksnyj-analiz-radiacionnoj-i-jekologicheskoj-bezopasnosti-obi-i-irtysha.html.)

            Both the numerically small peoples of the Russian North and ethnic Russian communities there are certain to be reassured by the finding that conditions have improved with regard to water and fish taken from these rivers, but they and others are likely to be alarmed by the suggestion that permafrost melting may create new dangers.

            Russian scholars have devoted much attention to the fact that the melting of the permafrost is releasing ever more bacteria and viruses into the atmosphere (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-ice-will-melt-and-we-will-all-die.html, windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2023/04/melting-of-permafrost-may-release-not.html and windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2022/12/melting-of-permafrost-in-russian-north.html).

            But they have been chary about talking about the much more explosive possibility that permafrost melting will lead to the stirring up of more radioactive materials into the water supply and the fish people along Siberian rivers eat. That makes this latest research especially important as a political as well as a social and economic development.

A New and Unexpected Emigration – Russians Moving to Belarus for Comfort and Security

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – Increasing repression in Russia, declining economic opportunities there, and now Ukrainian drone attacks are leading ever more Russians to leave their own country and move to Belarus “in a search for comfort and security,” according to Irina Kravtsova.

            There are no available statistics on how large this flow has become, the Novaya Gazeta Europe journalist says; but it is clear from talk on social networks that it is no longer simply a curiosity. She spoke with four Russians who have already made this move (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2026/07/10/ia-tut-snova-stal-spat-golyshom).

            The first moved from St. Petersburg to Minsk in the summer of 2023. There are no language problems for him in Belarus, Dmitry says; and politics so far hasn’t become an issue. “As long as I’m not touched,” he continues, “every day I am becoming only more happy that I’ve moved.”

            The second, Kseniya, a native Muscovite moved in early 2025, moved not only to be with a Minsk air traffic controller but because she was happier to be in a place where income inequality was almost nonexistent at least in comparison with the Russian Federation now.

            The third relocator with whom Kravtsova spoke is a 28-year-old from Voronezh who moved to Brest in May of this year. He says that he began to think about leaving Russai when mobilization began in 2022; but as things got worse, he decided it was “incomprehensible” why he didn’t move to Belarus.

            Igor said that life in Belarus is far more pleasant than in his homeland and that he actively encourages other Russians to move. They won’t regret it, he suggests, however many temporary difficulties they may encourage. Life in the two countries is quite similar but life in Belarus is better.

            And the fourth, 38-year-old Elena, come from Minsk but after graduating from the Belarusian State University moved to Russia where she worked in advertising and in the public relations departments of various state institutions. She moved back because of increasing repression and the rising cost of living.

            So far, she has not found a job in Minsk; but she is optimistic and glad she has chosen to return to her original homeland. Life is better in many ways; and the fact that one has to avoid talking about politics is not a problem for Russians: they’ve already learned that lesson well. 

Declining Water Levels in Caspian ‘Irreversible’ and Littoral States Must Adapt, Azerbaijani Official Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 8 – The decline of the water level of the Caspian Sea, now falling at between 20 and 30 centimeters (eight to twelve inches) has become “irreversible,” Aliaga Azizov, deputy head of the State Supervision Service for the Use and Protection of Azerbaijan, says.

            Consequently, it is long past time to stop debating whether this is so and to focus instead on adapting to the situation now and preparing for it to become worse in the future, Baku’s senior water specialist says (casp-geo.ru/obmelenie-kaspijskogo-morya-stalo-neobratimym-protsessom-schitayut-v-baku/).

            He observes that “the shallowing of the Caspian Sea has a serious impact on various areas: ports, shipping, fishing, coastal tourism and oil and gas infrastructure. This poses additional challenges to countries that depend on sea resources,” and taken together those will require residents and businesses to adapt to new conditions.”

            Azizov’s words are important instance not only because they put Azerbaijan at odds with Russian specialists who remain more optimistic about the future but also because they come from someone on the southern shores of the Caspian where water levels over the last decades have fallen less rapidly than in the north.

            But more important still is his call for adapting to this new reality rather than continuing to deny it. If Azizov’s position reflects the thinking of the Azerbaijan government – and it is difficult to think that it does not – then Baku will be taking the lead in dredging operations and reconstruction of ports.

            That will be an expensive choice, but it is likely to be the only one that will allow Azerbaijan and her littoral neighbors to continue to use the Caspian as a source of food, petroleum products and transit, something that will have an impact on China, the EU, and the West generally which want to continue to send oil and other cargo across the Caspian. 

Karelian Activists Seek to Make Dual-Language Ballots Automatic For Themselves and Others

Paul Goble     

            Staunton, July 7 – Karelian activists are seeking to make dual-language ballots automatic in areas where ethnic minorities life rather than leaving question of whether to have such ballots printed up to local officials who often refuse to prepare such ballots even when requested to do so.

            The Russian constitution specifies that non-Russians have the right to ballots and other election forms in their native languages; but that provision of the basic law increasing is ignored by officials. Now activists in Karelia are trying to change that (mariuver.eu/2026/07/07/aktivisty-trebujut-bjulletenei-na-nacionalnyh-jazykah/).

            They are calling on Karels and Weps to continue to bombard election officials with demands that ballots be printed in their languages and to force the government to live up to its constitution not only there but elsewhere, demands that may seem a small point but are an indication of the kind of action that may have some chance of success.

            After all, calling on Moscow to live according to its own laws and constitution was one of the strongest tactics of the Moscow Helsinki Group in the last decades of Soviet power not because that organization got its way but because it gained support for the idea of a law-based state, something the Karelian activists clearly hope can happen again.