Ukraine at Risk of ‘Somalization’ if West Suddenly Ends Aid to Force Talks, Moscow Analyst Says

Paul Goble
    Staunton, Jan. 22 – Russian analysts are beginning to focus on what may happen as the West pushes both Russia and Ukraine to reach a settlement on the war, with some expressing alarm that the process itself could produce consequences that few are focusing on and that no one should want.
    One Russian analyst who has focused on these possibilities is Iosif Diskin, an economist at the HSE, who says that if the West suddenly cut off assistance to Kyiv to force it to reach an agreement, that could lead to “the Somalization” of Ukraine and “trigger a new phase” in the conflict (mk.ru/politics/2025/01/22/nazvan-trigger-kotoryy-zapustit-novuyu-fazu-ukrainskogo-krizisa.html).
    Without Western assistance, Kyiv would lose much of the leverage it has over various places and institutions across Ukraine, Diskin suggests, and that could lead to warlordism and the spread of uncontrolled violence not only within its borders but across them into other countries, exactly the opposite of what those pushing for talks and an agreement presumably want.