Paul Goble
Staunton, Jan. 14 – Between 1953 and 1990, more than 1200 members of the Soviet elite fled abroad, individual actions that Western governments supported because they calculated that this would weaken the communist regime in Moscow, Aaron Lea and Borukh Taskin say. But under Putin, almost no members of the elite have fled.
While most of the reasons for that are to be found inside Russia and the special relationship its elites have with the regime, at least some reflect a change in attitude in Western countries which no longer encourage such cases of flight even though that would weaken Putin and thus serve their interests (themoscowtimes.com/2025/01/14/why-arent-russias-elites-fleeing-putin-a87612).
The two international experts on Russian elites suggest that Western countries should take five steps now in order to lead more members of the elites in Russia to conclude that they would be welcome in the West and could continue their careers there while waiting for regime change in Moscow. Those five steps include:
• First of all, “the West must construct policies that support the freedom of Russians to seek sanctuary in the West rather than continuing to exist in criminal Russia.” That will require political will as “the world changes too quickly to wait for the bureaucracy.
• Second, they suggest, “mechanisms should be created to integrate Russian elites who have left for the West into the daily agenda of the coalition countries,” including ensuring that they will be able to keep part of any capital they bring out with them.
• Third, “a large number of NGOs, charitable foundations, think tanks, mass media and high-tech startups where Russian emigres can find employment as board members, sponsors, supervisory board members, consultants, etc., should be created.”
• Fourth, “we should consider involving carefully selected high-class managers and investors from Russia in the formation of at least investments, crypto-asset circulation and fiat cross-border payments betwwoeldgeeen the countries they have chosen to live in.”
• And fifth, “a NATO-monitored integration service should be created for the departed sisloviki and others with sensitive knowledge.”
“We believe there is a significant potential for splitting Putin's elites, creating conditions for their flight from Russia and integration into Western civilization and subsequent return to a future democratic Russia. This window of opportunity will not always exist and the mechanisms supporting such a split must be discussed at the highest levels and created now,” Lea and Taskin say..
Moreover, they argue in conclusion, “if this is not done immediately, Russia’s elites, driven behind the new Iron Curtain on both sides, will continue to support Putin's power from within. Proposals aimed at dividing and fragmenting the Russian establishment … will not have the desired effect.”
Friday, January 17, 2025
West Must Take Five Steps Now to Encourage Members of Russian Elite to Break with Putin and Flee Abroad, Lea and Taskin Say
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