Kazakhstan Must Rely on Technology rather than Partisans for Defense, Kazakh Journal Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Feb. 10 – Since Vladimir Putin launched his expanded war in Ukraine, Kazakhstan’s Altyn-Orda says, “Kazakhstani public discourse increasingly discusses the scenario of future war as a guerrilla confrontation—a long, grueling struggle based on the numbers and endurance of people -- but this approach is dangerously outdated.”

            “Real wars,” the portal argues with an obvious eye to what has been happening in Uraine, “show that their outcome is determined not by the masses or the ability to endure but by the speed of control, the quality of communication, and the technological maturity of the state” (altyn-orda.kz/pochemu-v-vojnah-xxi-veka-pobezhdayut-tehnologii-a-ne-partizanskaya-logika-i-chto-eto-znachit-dlya-kazahstana/).

            “For Kazakhstan” – and implicitly for all other post-Soviet states – “this is not some abstract theory but a question of strategic choice: Guerilla logic is a bet on human survival, but technological logic in contrast is a bet on ensuring that the people defending their state don’t have to die at all.”

            Altyn-Orda says that Ukraine represents an obvious example of how the rise of technology has reduced the importance of calculations based on guerilla war. “With limited demographic resources, that country has managed to maintain and shift the balance of power through technology.”

            This has allowed for “rapid decision-making and the coordination of actions at various levels,” and it reflects the importance of “the domestic technological eco-system: the network of small and mid-sized manufacturers, engineering teams and rapid testing and implementation cycles.”

            In contrast to the Russian invader, Kyiv “hasn’t locked innovation into a single hub but has allowed the system to learn and adapt faster than its opponents. That experience in turn demonstrates that it’s not the sheer number of people that matters but the system’s ability to think and change.”

            For countries like Kazakhstan, “the key lesson is that AI and defense technologies don’t start in the military but in the economy and the educational system. They can’t be ‘bought quickly;’ instead, “they emerge from universities, engineering schools, the IT sector, industrial automation and a data culture.”

            Thus, Altyn-Orda continues, “a state which invests in education, applied science and digital infrastructure simultaneously is investing in its own security And that in turn means that “romanticizing guerilla logic is a throwback and an admission of systemic weakness.” Those countries which recognize this will be secure; those that don’t won’t.