Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 29 –President
Vladimir Putin named Ramazan Abdulatipov, head of Daghestan in place of
Magomedsalam Magomedov who will now work on nationality issues in the Presidential
Administration because the Kremlin is worried continuing instability there
could threaten the Sochi Olympiad in 2014, according to commentators in the
Russian Federation.
Akhmed Yarlykhanov, a senior researcher
at the Moscow Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, told the Caucasus Times
that “the decision to change the leadership of Daghestan was dictated by the
need to impose order in the republic as the Olympic Games in Sochi approach” (caucasustimes.com/article.asp?id=21097).
Daghestan in many respects is “the
key republic in the North Caucasus,” the scholar said, and Moscow has now “appointed
a man who is very much an outsider” on whom the center can rely “because he has
not lived in Daghestan for more than 30 years and does not have clan or other
ties in the republic.”
Thus, far more than his predecessor
who was very much enmeshed in such ties, Abdulatipov who has a reputation for
flexibility and adaptability to changes in policy lines will be in a position
to take the kind of actions that could pacify the population there and thus
relieve the concerns of Moscow and foreigners about security in Sochi.
And Biyakay Magomedov, the editor of
the Daghestani weekly “Chernovik,” agreed. He told the “Kavkazskaya politika”
portal yesterday that Abdulatipov was “a beautiful choice. He is a remarkable
man, literate and educated and who is concerned about the republic in ways that
earlier leaders have not been” (kavpolit.com/kreml-xochet-spokojstviya-do-olimpiady/).
But
Abdulatipov was chosen less for those qualities than because “the Kremlin wants
to ensure peace and quiet in the region before the Olympics. If the Duma does not adopt a law putting off
elections of regional heads, then there will be voting in Daghestan in
September.” The new man, unlike his predecessor, “would have every chance of
winning.”
But “if the selection of the head of
the region remains with popular assemblies, Magomedov continued, “then Moscow
will not be risking anything at all [by its choice of Abdulatipov] because the deputies can be counted on to
confirm any candidate proposed by the federal center.”
According to Magomedov, the
dismissal of Magomedsalam Magomedov had been expected for some time. There is “nothing
super-natural” about the delay. It is probable that the Kremlin couldn’t
process the papers in a timely fashion or was uncertain of what new position it
would be offering the former Daghestani chief.
Various Moscow commentators have
offered “various versions for why Magomedalam was sent into [this honorary]
retirement, but according to the “Chernovik” editor, the main reason is
obvious: he had not fulfilled the obligations he had earlier taken upon himself
and thus Daghestan remains extremely unsettled.
The former Daghestani leader had not
been able to improve the republic’s economy because he could not escape from
the influence of three magnates there, despite the infusion of funds from the center,
and had not been able to improve security, despite the introduction of
additional Russian forces in recent months.
According to the editor, one of the
closest and most thoughtful observers of Daghestani developments, Abdulatipov’s
“first-order task” will be to remove “all current ministers without exception”
and to name new people from the outside.
“If Moscow gives Abdulatipov such authority, then he can really change
something.” But that is an open question.
And
it is also an open question whether Abdulatipov or anyone in Makhachkala or
Moscow can ensure that the North Caucasus will be sufficiently quiet ahead of
the Sochi Olympics to eliminate concerns about security. Indeed, by making this
issue so central, Putin is almost inviting the militants to do what they can to
make sure that is not the case.
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