Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 13 – Russian President
Vladimir Putin operates on the assumption, which many observers in Moscow and
abroad appear to share, that Moscow may be bubbling with popular unhappiness
and organized dissent but that the rest of the Russian Federation is quiet and
stable.
But a survey conducted by Igor
Dmitriyev of “Novaya Versiya” posted online yesterday suggests that assumption
is far from justified and that Putin’s own policy of replacing governors in those
federation subjects where conflicts are
most obvious may in fact spark more unrest in more places rather than calm the
situation (versia.ru/articles/2013/feb/11/shatko_i_valko).
Indeed,
Dmitriyev argues, “the average level of social-political stability of all the
subjects of the Russian Federation continues to fall” and that “in certain
subjects, [this] has reached a critical level,” a development that suggests
that the Kremlin will soon make more changes among the governors than it has in
the
past.
The “Novaya versiya” author says
that “the main recent event in regional policy” was the approval on firs
reading of legislation which would allow a shift away from gubernatorial
elections, a law that without doubt will be approved this spring and that “will
take from voters the opportunity only just returned to them to influence the
regional authorities” by election.
Without that chance, Dmitriyev
argues, “sooner or later,” in places where there are problems, the “political
temperature” will rise, and “where [it] gets too high, the Kremlin will try” to
bring it down by “the simplest method” available, that is, “by the replacement
of the head of the region.”
That approach by the center explains
two changes in regional leadership in the past month, he continues. In Magadan,
Nikolay Dudov was retired in favor of Vladimir Pecheny, because, in the view of
many observers, the former had gotten himself into too serious “conflicts” with
the fishing industry.
And in Daghestan, the situation was “much
more serious.” Being “one of the most
explosive” regions in the country, that North Caucasus republic displays a
number of serious problems: inflation, murders of officials and attacks on police
posts, kidnappings of tax officials, and discovery of explosives in the house
of a deputy interior minister.
Worse still, from Moscow’s point of
view, it is clear that there had developed a deep split within the top stratum
of officials in Makhachkala, a split that could undermine state authority there
still further. That forced the center to
replace Magomedsalam Magomedov with Ramazan Abdulatipov, a step commentator Andrey
Piontkovsky described as “a gesture of despair.”
“According to many experts,”
Dmitriyev continues, “the threat of dismissal already hangs over several
governors,” including, in particular, the leaders of Vladimir Oblast,
Ingushetia, Khabarovsk Kray and Transbaikal Kray, where social-political
situations are especially dire and where the possibility of political problems
is particularly great.
The “Novaya versiya” writer then
surveys conditions in 20 federal subjects outside of Moscow where he suggests “the
symptoms of critical social-political instability” are already very much in
evidence. (He also mentions in addition, Magadan where the leadership has
already been changed and Moscow, the 22nd such subject.)
Among the problems the journalist
points to in the 20 are the following. In Altay Kray, people are upset about
being forced to pay extra to get medical treatment and about electricity shut
offs in nine regions of the kray. In
Arkhangelsk, unemployment is increasing, and there has been a “sharp increase”
in youth crime over the last year.
In Bryansk oblast, orphanage programs
have collapsed, and 22 apartment blocks have been left without heat. In
Vladimir oblast, there are criminal charges pending against senior officials.
In Volgograd oblast, several social organizations have already called on Putin
to replace the governor.
In Vladimir, criminal charges have
been lodged against senior officials. In Volgograd, public organizations have
called on the Kremlin to replace the governor. In Transbaikal kray, the
citizenry has demanded the restoration of rail connections between Chita and
Zabaikalsk and have been angered by reports about sexual exploitation of
children in children’s homes there.
In Ingushetia, there have been
accusations of corruption against two senior officials, the house of a member
of the Council of Muftis has been shot had, and the trainer at a local sports
club has been kidnapped. In Kabardino-Balkaria, there has been an accident on a
gas pipeline, the murder of a policemen, fighting with militants, and a scandal
about payments to those who worked on the Chernobyl clean up.
In Kalmykia, there are reports of
financial shenanigans in the republic economics ministry and criminal accusations
against the former president of the republic. In Karachayevo-Cherkesia, there
have been shootings and rising prices for bakery goods. In Karelia, there has
been a new wave of factory closings and layoffs and the interior minister has
been told to “prepare for the possibility of a social explosion.”
In Kirov oblast, the governor has
been interrogated by police about corruption, a senior official is now on the
wanted list, and criminal charges have been brought against the direct of the central
market. In Orel oblast, criminal charges
have been lodged against the deputy head of the interior ministry office there,
and searches have been carried out in major employer.
In Orenburg oblast, the leaders of
the KPRF, LDPR and SR parties have issued a joint appeal to the Kremlin to
focus on the terrible conditions in health care facilities in that region. In
Perm kray, there have been protests against the governor’s plans to shift the
zoo to the territory of a local forest.
In Ryazan oblast, the regional
government is running up debt despite increasing prices for municipal transport
and problems with the heating system. In
North Osetia, there have been ecological protests. In Smolensk oblast, there have
been problems at a local museum and cut offs of heat.
In Khabarovsk kray, criminal cases
have begun against officials over land deals, and the population is angry about
officially published data showing that their region has among the most
contaminated drinking water in the country.
And in Chelyabinsk oblast, 85 percent of the population, according to a
poll, is critical of the governor.
None of these problems, of course, necessarily
presages a crisis, but almost any of them could trigger a protest. But at the
very least, Dmitriyev suggests, they paint a very different picture of relative
stability beyond the ring road and thus pose new challenges to the Kremlin in
the coming months.
On the one hand, Putin may seek to
win popularity by replacing unpopular governors. But on the other, he may
create a situation in which it will be seen that expressions of popular
unhappiness about officials may bring a change in leadership, a lesson which
could trigger more such expressions both in the regions and in the country as a
whole.
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