Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 28 – Twenty-five
years ago, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt characterized the Soviet Union as being
an “Upper Volta with missiles.” Now, Russian analysts, in response to findings
of a Swiss firm, have suggested that a better analogy might be between the
Russian Federation and a “Nigeria with snow.”
The three differences between these
declarations tell a great deal about the path that Russia has followed over the
last generation. In the earlier time, the analogy was made by a Western
political leader, horrified Soviet citizens, and suggested that Russia’s
military strength was the thing that set it apart from a much weaker country.
Now, the analogy is being made by
Russian analysts, horrifies Western business interests, and suggests that it is
precisely Russia’s similarity with Nigeria on a wide range of economic and
political measures including corruption and government inefficiency that is the
heart of the matter and cannot be obscured by snow.
In an article posted yesterday on the
“Svobodnaya pressa” site and entitled “Nigeria in the Snow,” commentator Andrey
Polunin said that in the view of foreign investors as expressed in a report by
the Swiss Coca-Cola HBC, “Russia stands closest of all to … Nigeria” becaue of the
nature of its political and economic system (svpressa.ru/society/article/64866/).
(That this analogy is now widespread
in Moscow is suggested by the simultaneous appearance of another article, this
one by Petr Svoekoshtny on the Polit.ru portal entitled “Northern Nigeria” (polit.ru/article/2013/02/27/russia/).)
According to Polunin, the Coca-Cola
HBC report makes five basic points.
First, for Russia as for Nigeria, state policy is inconsistent and thus
makes investing more risky. Second, the legal systems of the two countries are
poorly articulated. Third, like Nigeria,Russia
has too many different government players for any company to know whose
decision will stick.
Fourth, both countries “historically
have very high levels of corruption,” something that makes it difficult for US
firms, restrained as they are by anti-corruption laws, to operate. And fifth, the lack of clarity in the legal
systems of the two countries makes it difficult to calculate profitability and
thus determine whether an investment is wise or not
These conclusions are hardly
original, Polunin points out. But they underscore the reality that “the third
presidential term of Vladimir Putin – more precisely, the political protests
and growth of tensions connected with it – have made Russia ever more like
Nigeria in the eyes of foreigners.”
“Svobodnaya pressa” appends a table
comparing Russia and Nigeria in 2007 across a large number of indicators to
underscore that even then “the basic social-economic indicators of Russia and
Nigeria were very close.” Apparently,
the article implies and the Western analysts suggest, they have become still
closer in the intervening years.
Polunin asked two Russian commentators for their
reactions, Valery Solovey, an MGIMO professor who heads the New Force Party,
and Ruslan Khasbulatov, a professor at the Russian Economic University and the
former chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the Russian Federation.
Solovey said that the Coca-Cola HBC
assessment “corresponds to the general assessment of the overwhelming share of Russian
economists” The situation is “not simply bad;
it is getting worse” because of the Russian government’s policies. “Unfortunately,”
he said, “everything” that the Western risk assessment report found “is pure
truth.”
The factors it identifies make it
extremely likely that Russia “is now at the first stage” of serious political
unrest, with a new round of protests likely to emerge and on “a new basis, not political protest against dishonest
elections but of social-economic dissatisfaction.” That will make the protests broader and
larger.
In addition, increasing immigration “pressure”
is viewed by many Russians as the reason their lives are not getting better,
and the influx of North Caucasians into the southern part of Russia is
affecting social and political attitudes there.
Over the next year, Solovey suggested, these various factors are likely
to come together.
The outflow of Russian capital is
also likely to continue “and even increase” for the reasons the report
listed. And that will only make the
situation worse for ordinary Russians, the New Force Party leader said.
Khasbulatov, in contrast, said it
was “madness” to compare Nigeria with Russia. Instead, he suggested, one should
see this report and this comparison as part of a general pattern of Western
opposition to continued investment in the Russian Federation, opposition that
was reflected most recently in statements by George Soros at Davos in January.
Nonetheless, he conceded that there
are “enormous” problems with the Russian economy, and he argued that they were
largely of Moscow’s own making. Relying
on gas and oil exports alone, as the Putin regime has done, “is a sign of a
colonial economy,” and it puts Russia at serious risk when prices fall. “The
faith of the Kremlin that prices for oil will be high eternally stupefies me,”
Khasbulatov continued.
If the influx of petro-dollars
falls, he argued, this will force the government and business to cut pay,
social programs and pensions. And when that happens, people will go out in the
streets not just in Moscow but throughout the country. Clearly, the Kremlin does not understand this
or how to avoid it.
The majority of Russians are
disappointed and distrustful of those in power.
“Russian society does not trust anyone, not Putin or the government.”
Indeed, Khasbulatov suggested, “today the real level of trust in political
leaders is comparable to the level of trust in [former Russian President Boris]
Yeltsin in 1996.”
“In other words, it is
catastrophically low.” That is “pushing
Russia to instability,” something foreign analysts fear and is driving them to suggest,
as Coca-Cola HBS has, that Russia today has become “a Nigeria with snow.”
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