Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 19 – The presidential
election campaign in Tajikistan has not yet begun, but already those surround
President Emomali Rahmon are “in a panic” that “the Arab Spring” and “the
Turkish summer” may lead to “a Tajik fall” in which those now in office may not
be able to cope with a rising tide of public protest, according to a Tajik
commentator.
In an essay on Centrasia.ru today,
Saifullo Samarzoda suggests that the Dushanbe elite feels trapped “between the
Scylla of dictatorship and the Charybdis of democracy” and that all its actions
in the coming months are likely to reflect that fundamentally insoluble
conflict (centrasia.ru/news.php?st=1371643140).
On the one hand, members of Rahmon
would like to choose the former; but on the other, they know that they have to “choose”
the other as well because without the trappings of elections, they know they will
not be viewed as legitimate by the international community or accepted as such
by their own population.
Consequently, they are tacking
between one and the other, Samarzoda says.
The first victim is “the much-suffering Party of the Islamic Rebirth of
Tajikistan.” But because most Tajiks are Muslims, the regime has had to use “direct
terror” and thus has further undermined its standing with the faithful.
However, far more serious, Rahmon’s
approach has led the members of that party to remember that the president
promised the United Tajik Opposition that they would get 30 percent of all
government posts if they agreed to make peace.
By failing to follow through, Rahmon has lost their support. “It is
nothing personal; it is simply business” for both sides.
That doesn’t mean that the incumbent
president has anything to worry about from a candidate the entire opposition
might agree on. No, the Tajik commentator says, “the strength of the opposition
is not what it says about specific issues” but from the regime’s inability to
propose anything given its failure to live up to its promises and widespread
corruption.
As
a result, Rahmon has come up with simply “fantastic” projects like the Ragun
hydro dam and railroads from China and the UAE, project that the
government-controlled media say will over the next 30 years transform backward
Tajikistan into “a heaven on earth, an Asian Switzerland.”
No one believes this, not even those
who proclaim it. Consequently, Rahmon has concluded that “each resident of Tajikistan”
must feel the hot breath of “the Scylla of the authoritarian dictatorship” even
as he goes forward with plans to hold the presidential elections as scheduled.
However, “international experience shows that in
conditions when all opposition parties are under control and the pot of popular
anger is tightly shut, something can break out in almost any place.” That is
what sparked the Arab spring and the Turkish summer, and the Dushanbe elite fears
it could happen in Tajikistan this fall.
Tajikistan has already had experience with football
fans spilling out into the streets. That
could happen again, Samarzoda says, and with more obvious political
consequences. Blocking mobile phones or
Internet connectivity is no insurance against that possibility.
According to the commentator, “the people are tired
of Rahmon, his thieving little family, his fantastic projects, his hypocrisy
and cowardice.” As the date of the elections approach, that exhaustion is
likely to grow – and if people around Rahmon see that trend, they may take some
unusual steps.
The ruling elite could decide “to sacrifice the
capital in order to preserve the ship by organizing a palace coup.” And that possibility means that “no pressure
on the opposition, no denial of equal rights [in voting], not even 95 percent
of the vote will guarantee Rahmon the love of the people or continuation in
office.”
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