Paul
Goble
Staunton, August 31 – Alarmed by Vladimir Putin’s dismissive comments about his country and by Vladimir
Zhirinovsky’s suggestion that Moscow will annex part of Kazakhstan after it
finishes with Ukraine, President Nursultan Nazarbayev says that Kazakhstan
could leave the Moscow-organized Eurasian Union.
The Kazakhstan president said that “if
the rules which were earlier established in the treaty are not fulfilled, then
Kazakhstan has the complete right to end its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. Astana will never be in an organization which represents a
threat to the independence of Kazakhstan” (newsru.com/world/31aug2014/nazarbaev.html).
“Our independence is our most valued
treasure,” the longtime Kazakhstan said, something “for which our grandfathers
struggled. First of all, we will never give up our independence, and second, we
will do everything possible to defend it,” an almost direct response to Putin
and to Zhirinovsky.
Nazarbayev’s remarks are especially
significant because for more than two decades he has been pushing for a tighter
but rule-based organization of the post-Soviet states, arguing on many
occasions including in a book he wrote that everyone will benefit if everyone
lives according to the same rules.
By threatening to leave Putin’s
version of the Eurasian Union, the Kazakhstan president has sent the clearest
signal yet that he does not believe the Kremlin leader plans to play by any
rules regardless of what he says, and it reinforces the decisions of Minsk and
Astana not to go along with the Kremlin leader on Ukraine.
Consequently, whatever gains Putin
thinks he can make by his aggression in Ukraine are being undercut by Russian losses
elsewhere. That might restrain some leaders, but it could have the effect of
causing Putin to redouble his bets on the use of force, a step that if he takes
it could plunge the entire region into disaster.
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