Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 28 – Given the
increasing pessimism among Russians because of declines in their standard of
living, Russia may be approaching a revolutionary situation, according to
Yekaterina Dobrenkova; but the revolution may not succeed or it may turn out to
be very different than the one the opposition hopes for.
Earlier this month, VTsIOM released
survey data showing a continuing deterioration in the opinions of Russians
about their present and future situation.
Valery Fedorov, the polling agency’s head, noted that Russians are about
to enter 2016 with anything but an optimistic attitude.
“The reduction in the real incomes
of the population by 10 percent over the last year, the new collapse of the
ruble given the continuing decline of oil prices,” he said, “is perniciously
reflected in the prospects for economic growth. [And] precisely the absence of
prospects, of ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ oppresses people most of all.”
The Russian Orthodox nationalist
portal “Russkaya Narodnaya Liniya” reported these findings and asked Ekaterina
Dobrenkova, the pro-rector of Moscow’s International Academy of Business and
Administration, whether “a revolution threatens Russia?” Her answers will be not be reassuring to the
Kremlin (ruskline.ru/news_rl/2015/12/28/grozit_li_rossii_revolyuciya/).
Dobrenkova says that she agrees both
with the data VTsIOM has offered and with Fedorov’s conclusions and argues that
“the time has come” for the government to face up to the problems, be honest
with the population, and stop misleading it by suggesting that the peak of the
crisis has passed.
“Unfortunately,” she continues, “at
present Russians have few reasons for optimism.” And the government is making
it worse because it is one thing to issue overly positive assessments of
foreign actions but quite another to say things are good when it is talking
about what Russians experience every day.
That only has the effect of
increasing distrust among the population for all “official declarations and
policies,” Dobrenkova says. And she
urges Moscow to “take an example from [US President Franklin Delano] Roosevelt
who honestly told his people that their country was in a difficult position and
proposed a course unifying all strata of the population.”
The Russian people is so constituted
that it “is prepared to unite at difficult times for the Fatherland, but only
the leader of the state must offer an idea and goal with the help of which
people will unite around their President. Therefore, one should not be seeking
to calm the people but to unite them!”
To date, however, she suggests, what
the government has offered has not been a serious plan but rather a set of
uncoordinated actions and political promises. “Without a unified strategy, the
government will not be able to cope with the tasks it has set itself,” and
worse, the population will see this.
“Today,” Dobrenkova says, “it is
complicated to predict whether there will be a revolution in Russia.” The situation has not yet reached the point
where those on top can’t act and those below don’t want to accept things as
they are. “But when the dissatisfaction of those below exceeds 50 percent, then
in this case, a revolution is possible.”
The upcoming Duma and presidential
elections could either be a means of overcoming this threat or they could
exacerbate it given that in the campaigns “will appear forces who desire to
whip up the anger of the population and direct it against the state” in order
to weaken it and achieve their own goals, the sociologist says.
“Our foreign ‘partners,’” she
continues, “who do not wish us anything good are increasing their activities
and financing on the eve of the elections.” And if Russians are left without the
ability to feed their families, no one can predict what they might do. The
situation is not yet that dire, but it could become so.
At the same time, the Moscow scholar
points out, “a revolution does not always lead to the overthrow of the government,
because the demands of citizens can be different.” The kind of revolution in
Russia that the US and the opposition would like probably won’t happen, “but
this does not mean that the people will not go out into the square with their
own demands.”
The actions of the long haul
truckers show this, she says, and others may follow. “What did the government
do in this situation?” It made concessions that had the effect of showing that
its earlier actions were “unjust” and should not have been taken in the first
place. Russians can see that.
“Now, legislation should be very
carefully considered, for numerous laws that have been adopted are putting
additional burdens on business and on the population. “Unfortunately, in the
government, they continue to accept laws” designed to extract more resources
from the population and are imposing them to try to cope with the crisis.
But in so doing, Dobrenkova says, the authorities
are only making the situation for the country and themselves worse.
In next year’s Duma election, the
ruling United Russia Party is likely to suffer defeats as a result of this and becasue
it hasn’t brought new leaders to the fore and instead has denied Russians the
opportunity to vote against all candidates, it has reduced the legitimacy of the
elections by depriving them of the chance to “express their opinion.”
If things continue to deteriorate,
Dobrenkova says, Russians will find other and perhaps to some less acceptable
ways to express what they think.
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