Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 30 – The Minsk
Accords are the diplomatic equivalent of Vladimir Putin’s “little green men,”
Andrey Illarionov says. Like the latter, these pieces of paper have as their
goal the destruction of Ukraine; and they are even more effective because they
enjoy the support not only of the leaders of Western countries but of the
Ukrainian government itself.
In the course of a long interview
published by Liga.net, the Russian opposition commentator argues that Putin’s
diplomacy around the Minsk Accords is the continuation of his war against
Ukraine by other means (news.liga.net/interview/politics/7472200-andrey_illarionov_minskie_soglasheniya_sposob_razrusheniya_ukrainy.htm).
Russia lacks the resources to launch
a full-scale attack on Ukraine, Illarionov says, but that does not mean that it
will not continue its aggression against Ukraine. It isn’t just that the
Kremlin now has to fight on two fronts. “There are simply no forces. At
present. The current Russian army cannot conquer Ukraine.”
But Putin’s goal remains unchanged –
blocking Ukraine’s move away from Moscow towards Europe, and “besides open war,
there are many methods of achieving it: in particular, besides little green
men, there are little green papers,” in this case the Minsk Accords which help
Putin toward his goal.
Putin’s goal, everyone must
remember, Illarionov says, “is not the raising of Russian flags in Kyiv and the
declaration of [Ukraine] as the territory of the Russian Federation but only
the establishment of control over the Ukrainian state and its political elite
by means of its own people in Kyiv offices.”
“The Minsk Accords are one of the
most effective instruments for the achievement of Putin’s goal,” Illarionov
continues, since under them are the signatures of senior Ukrainian officials,
and also on the side of Putin are such people as Merkel, Hollande, and Obama
who also demand the observance and fulfillment of the Minsk agreements.”
The existence of these accords has
obscured for some the fact that “Putin’s operation to establish control over
Ukraine has not been completed and that he has in his hands all the cards. More than that, people from the Ukrainian
side are actively helping him by agreeing to fulfill the Minsk Accords.”
Indeed, it appears some in Ukraine
appear to have forgotten that Russia has invaded them and thus have forgotten
what is required when one is dealing with enemies as well as allies. During a war, “one must not give amnesty to
terrorists, but under ‘the Minsk peace’ please do;” during a war, “one must not
change a constitution on the demand of the aggressor, but under ‘the Minsk
peace,’ do so as much as you like.”
Asked if he was calling on Ukraine
to “openly fight with the Russian Federation,” Illarionov replies by asking “would
you prefer to gradually lose part of your territory by the path of ‘the Minsk
peace?’” And can Ukrainians long tolerate a situation in which some of their
leaders have not gotten rid of their investments in the land of the invaders?
The Turkish government wasn’t afraid
to shoot down a Russian warplane that violated Turkey’s airspace, he observes.
But again was challenged by his interviewer who suggested that “NATO stands
behind Erdogan, but there is no one behind Ukraine,” Illarionov says that
Ukraine could in any case only count on itself but that that didn’t change the
calculus.
Those in Kyiv who think there exists
“an anti-Putin coalition” in Europe are deluding themselves. “Who is in it?”
Illarionov asks rhetorically. “Holland who just returned from Moscow? Or Merkel
who criticized [Kyiv] for turning off the electricity to [Russian occupied]
Crimea?”