Paul
Goble
Staunton, January 5 – In the dies non that exists in Russia over the winter
holidays, two uncomfortable and potentially dangerous questions have been
raised about Vladimir Putin: Does his fall off in public activity mean he is
sick? And are recent deaths evidence that the Kremlin leader is getting rid of
witnesses to his crimes?
That such questions are being asked
at all is more important in terms of public attitudes than the answers that
anyone may give to one or the other.
Yesterday, Moscow’s independent Dozhd
television, citing a report by the Center for Economic and Political Reforms (cepr.su/2016/01/04/kolvo-ukazov/),
said that in recent weeks, Putin’s activity has fallen to “a record low for the
past 15 years,” sparking concerns that he is either tired or sick (tvrain.ru/news/ustalost_prezidenta-401269/).
Between 1994 and 2012, the center’s
analysts found, Russia’s three presidents, Boris Yeltsin, Vladimir Putin and
Dmitry Medvedev issued between 123 and 149 decrees monthly. But since 2013, they
found that Putin had issued “almost half as many” and that “the number has contracted
further.” In 2013, he issued 970; in 2014, 837; and in 2015, 638.
Nikolay Mironov, the center’s
director, says that this fall off in activity “may be connected with physical
problems” or simply the result of the wearing down of someone who has long been
in office. The decline began in May 2013, and since that time, many have
suggested that Putin doesn’t look as well as he did earlier.
He notes that the decline in official
activity includes not just decrees but other forms of orders issued to
subordinates. Over the last year,
Mironov continues, the president has distanced himself “from all important
questions,” as shown as well by the way in which he answered questions at his
recent press conference.
But the director points to the most
important consequence of this: Under Russian conditions, if the president doesn’t
formulate his orders in a written form, many in the bureaucracy and society do
not know what they are supposed to do – and being at a loss, they may either do
nothing or go their own ways.
Today, Zoryan Shkiryak, an advisor
to the Ukrainian interior ministry, suggested that the recent deaths of two military
commanders who undoubtedly have access to many of Putin’s most closely held
secrets suggests that the Kremlin leader may be killing off witnesses to his
own crimes (nr2.com.ua/News/world_and_russia/Putin-izbavlyaetsya-ot-opasnyh-svideteley-svoih-prestupleniy-ekspert-114437.html).
He points specifically to the death on
December 27 of Major General Aleksandr Shushukin, who led the occupation of
Crimea, and of Col.Gen. Igor Sergun, the
head of the GRU, who has long done secretive dirty work “at the order of the
Kremlin in the war against Ukraine.”
Of course, the two deaths may be a
coincidence, but they are convenient and getting rid of the executors of regime
policy has long been a tradition for the Soviet and Russian security services.
They in this as in much else operate according to the principle “no person, no
problem.” That Putin might do the same
should not surprise anyone, Shkiryak says.
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