Paul
Goble
Staunton, October 17 – Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are all involved in festering border disputes with
each other, conflicts that so far have been relatively minor in and of
themselves, but that threaten to explode and to call into question their
ability to cooperate not only generally but against threats from Afghanistan.
Their differences over where the
borders should be and how disputes should be resolved thus represent a
potentially serious threat to the security of the region and to that of the
Russian Federation as well, Aleksandr Shustov, a specialist on the region,
argues in today’s issue of “NG-DipKuriyer” (ng.ru/courier/2016-10-17/11_triangle.html).
The most
significant border problems in the region, he writes, “are concentrated in the
Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Tajikistan triangle,” the three countries who share the
Fergana valley. The topography of that
region, the ethnically intermixed nature of the population, and the lack of
agreements on the border all make this a potential flashpoint.
The situation is made even worse,
Shustov says, by the demographic explosion among the titular nationalities,
their rural location, and “intensifying competition for land and water,” all
factors that have led the three governments both to dig in their heels and to
test the resolve of others by the use of border guards to advance their claims.
At present, there are disputed segments
on the borders among all three of these countries. The most problematic border
is the one between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The two sides have agreed on the delimitation
of only 530 of the 978 kilometers of its length. And 76 percent of the 1378 kilometer-long border
between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan has been agreed to.
Shustov points out that “the
delimitation of the Tajik-Uzbek border to a significant degree has been
completed: Only 105 kilometers of their 1332 kilometer-long border remain in
dispute. But there have been no talks
about the borders since 2009, and relations between Tashkent and Dushanbe have
deteriorated.
There is also the related problems
of ethnic enclaves left over from Soviet times. In the Fergana valley, there
are eight such enclaves. The majority (four Uzbek and two Tajik) are located in
Kyrgyzstan. “The largest Tajik enclave – Vorukh – is part of Tajiksitan’s
Sogdian oblast.
“The largest Uzbek enclaves in
Kyrgyzstan are Shakhimardan and Sokh, the latter of which with an area of 352
square kilometers and a population of 60,000 is “one of the largest in the world.” Complicating the situation is that 99 percent
of the residents of the Uzbek enclave are ethnic Tajiks, Shustov points out. There
is also a small (four square kilometers) Kyrgyz enclave in Uzbekistan, whose
residents are almost exclusively Kyrgyz by ethnicity.
The countries in the region have
formal agreements not to use force along the border, but in fact they have and
such use of forces has produced casualties.
The Kyrgyz-Tajik border has seen so much many cases of the use of force,
Shustov says, that it resembles a local combat zone in many places.
Such disputes affect the ability of
these countries to cooperate on other matters and even to deal with the common
threat emanating from Afghanistan. They also affect Russia which has very
different defense relationships with the three. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, for
example, are members of the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty
while Uzbekistan is not.
But Uzbekistan has a cooperation
treaty with Russia dating from 2005, although the change of government in
Tashkent may lead some to call that into question. Some in Moscow fear that a
major conflict on these borders could spark a massive refugee flow into Russia
and even exacerbate ethnic tensions there.
Consequently, Shustov says, what may
seem to be some minor clashes have the potential to grow rapidly and thus merit
close attention.
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