Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 21 – At the
conclusion of the All-Russian Civic Forum, Aleksey Kudrin, the head of the
Civic Initiatives Committee, outlined his ideas about what Russia needs to do
over the next 20 years to avoid disaster and return to modernization and
democracy. Znak’s Dmitry Kolesev has
organized them as 13 theses.
While one may be tempted to recall
Clemenceau’s observation about Woodrow Wilson’s 14 points – the French leader
pointed out that “the Good Lord had only ten” – Kudrin’s ideas do say a great
deal about what Russia will have to do in order to avoid disaster (znak.com/2016-11-20/rossiya_buduchego_13_tezisov_alekseya_kudrina_o_nashey_strane_cherez_20_let).
His
“theses” are as follows:
1. During
the next 20 years, Kudrin says, only those societies “which are able to
mobilize the possibilities of human individuality and human capabilities” will
succeed. We are moving toward ‘a knowledge economy,’” but while many Russians
use these terms, little has been done to put them into practice.
2. “In
developed countries, six to nine percent of the population works in creative
industries; [in Russia], about half of one percent. Our task is to create
creative possibilities and space for the growth of this number.”
3. Technological
advances mean that advances are the product of “a dialogue of machines and
society.” That will only increase, and again Russian lags behind.
4. “Soon
technology will replace many of the functions of government. The technology of
block chains can almost completely replace the state bureaucracy. Society will
be able on its own to solve various issues as well as make contracts and
agreements.”
5. If
Russian wants to be competitive, it must be a full participant in “the new
technical revolution.” That in turn requires “more freedom for creative people,
including in terms of cultural and social preferences.” In short, “in order to
be respected and strong (even in a military sense), we must be free and
creative.”
6. “From
television screens, we hear unfounded as a rule anti-Western rhetoric. People who talk this way do not understand at
all how the contemporary world is organized. There have already evolved
powerful horizontal ties among peoples, organizations and businessmen. Our
industry, including its military component, depends from 40 to 50 percent on
imported technology.”
7. “In
our country, now there are essentially fewer geopolitical or military risks
than the risk of technological or social backwardness. Our children’s mortality
is four times higher than in neighboring Finland. That is what we must address
in order to be successful.”
8. Russian
society is now divided among groups which do not trust one another. We must connect these groups and build
bridges between them.”
9. “We
must change the status of the entrepreneur” so that such people will be “heroes”
and “respected in society.” That will
require a change in attitudes inculcated for decades. “But without this change
reality won’t change either.”
10. “Our
society is aging. The state will not be able to take on itself all the burden
for its support.”
11. Russia
is now “spending more on preparations for the world cup than for the equipping
of university laboratories. And this is a catastrophe … “Let us make our
universities the best in the world.”
12. “The
developed world is moving toward a basic guaranteed income. Many countries are
discussing this possibilities.” But in Russia, things are moving “in the
opposite direction.” The tax on those who are not employed is “an anti-human
measure going against a worldwide trend.”
13.
The USSR failed not because of a
weak army or a weak KGB. It collapsed because of an ineffective economy. And
today the risks which led to the collapse of the USSR exist in Russia too. I hope this will not happen,” Kudrin says.
But to ensure that, “we must overcome our technological backwardness. That
alone will allow us to preserve the country.”
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