Paul
Goble
Staunton, November 15 – There is an
old saying among American lawyers that when trying a case, if the facts are
against you, argue law; if the law is against you, argue facts; and if both are
against you, raise your voice.
Unfortunately, lawyers are not the only ones who follow this dictum and
focus only on those factors which appear to favor their position.
In the last week following the
election of Donald Trump as US president, media in Russia with hope and in the
West with concern have suggested that the subjective factor of the personal
relationship of the two is going to immediately and forever transform the
Russian-American relationship, something the Kremlin appears to be hoping for
and that many in the West fear.
It is certainly true that personal
relationships matter in international relations and they matter profoundly in the short term just as they do in
domestic ones, but it is also true that those ties however strong they may be
are in almost every case quickly “trumped” over
the longer term by objective factors regardless of what one or both of the parties
think they want.
When Mikhail Gorbachev appeared as
the leader of the Soviet Union, many Western leaders developed a personal
relationship with him that led to predictions of a glorious new age of Russian-American
partnership. When he lost power and was
replaced by Boris Yeltsin, many felt that the absence of a similar rapport
undermined the possibility of change.
But in both cases, objective factors
like the economy and the military overwhelmed the subjective ones, pushing the
two sides in directions that their leaders may or may not have wanted or
pursued. That pattern has been typical,
and the same thing is likely to be true today after a brief “era of good
feeling” between Trump and Putin.
Since Trump’s election, the
Kremlin-controlled media has been promoting the idea that the incoming American
president will change course so dramatically that it will do miracles for
Russia, a view many commentators elsewhere have accepted as something both
inevitable and long-term (ru.krymr.com/a/28118381.html).
But three stories today should
disabuse those who expect either a miracle of a disaster:
·
First
of all, the Russian economy is in deep trouble; and it won’t be revived even by
an end of sanctions. Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia’s Central Bank,
warned that her country faces three tough years ahead (mk.ru/economics/2016/11/14/nabiullina-predupredila-rossiyan-o-trekh-tyazhelykh-godakh.html).
And many of Trump’s policies, including expanded drilling for oil, a reindustrialization
of the US, spending on infrastructure projects, and ending some international
trade arrangements will only make that process more difficult and more
contentious.
·
Second,
while Moscow has been celebrating the victory of what it considers “pro-Russian”
presidential candidates not only in the US but in Moldova and Bulgaria, experts
on Eastern Europe point out that however much these leaders may feel, Russia
today lacks the resources to substitute for the European Union and they know
that too. Consequently, they aren’t likely to tilt as far in the direction of
Moscow as Moscow thinks
·
And
third, and perhaps most important given Putin’s use of force or the threat of
its use, the Russian government is having to cut back on its spending for the military,
effectively gutting much of its vaunted power. When a country can’t provide its
soldiers with sufficient clothing or health care or pensions, its army and navy
are less the allies it may like to think they are (svpressa.ru/war21/article/160604/).
Putin and Trump or at least their advisors
are very much aware of all these things, and these trends rather than their
smiles will almost certainly dictate how their countries behave or are forced
to behave in the future. Trump, however much Putin hopes, isn’t going to be
Russia’s savior; and Putin, however much some in the West fear, isn’t going to
dominate Trump.
The objective factors for either
development aren’t present; and it is time for people to lower their voices and
take them into consideration in their analyses and projections.
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