Paul
Goble
Staunton, September 12 -- “In contrast to the countries of the West
which are led by the principle, ‘politics is the concentrated expression of
economics,’ Evhen Tsybulenko says, “the foreign policy of the Russian Federation
is based on the ‘horde’ vision of the state in which its expansion is intended
to secure resources and those resources are then used for more expansion.”
According to the Tallinn legal specialist, “the
essential figure of the development of Russia is expansion. If expansion ceases
… it will be followed by a popular rising or institutional collapse which will throw
this state back as far as possible in its development in comparison with others”
(petrimazepa.com/ekonomika_kak_oruzhie_kremlya).
At the present time, Russia’s
resources are oil, gas and cash. “Using them, Russia seeks to develop economic
cooperation with its neighbors and with more distant states,” not to improve
the lives of its own people but to create weak places and zones of instability
that Moscow can then exploit politically.
Moscow’s approach to Ukraine and more
recently to Belarus are clear examples of this, Tsybulenko says; but they are hardly
the only ones. Dominating Ukraine,
Belarus and Kazakhstan are “the minimum program; the maximum one involves not only
control over the Baltic countries but the establishment of zones of instability
in Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece and he formation of similar zones in
Germany, France, and the central and southern countries of the EU.”
Although many in the West refuse to
recognize this, Moscow’s preparations for all of that have been going on at
full speed, the Tallinn scholar says.
This involves not only the promotion of protests throughout Europe but
the creation of militarized formations among Europeans and the spread of
pro-Russian messages via social media.
Thus, Tsybulenko continues, “the
economic profit of joint energy projects with the Russian Federation is
deceptive for Russia already has frequently shown that it does not respect
international law and the obligations which it has undertaken in connection with
treaties and agreements.”
North Flow-2 may look like an
economic project, but in fact, it is a political weapon directed at “the energy
isolation of Ukraine” and at enriching Moscow so that it can continue to
subvert not just Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan but other countries as well, including
members of the EU far from Russia’s borders.
This expansion, the legal specialist
continues, “including by means of hybrid aggression is only one side of the
medal which is called ‘economic cooperation with Russia. The other side or more
precisely danger is that for cheap Russian raw materials – here is why certain
representatives of Western business call for ‘business as usual’ with Russia –
the EU countries will pay no small amount of money.”
“Europe is making an enormous error
by not learning from the example of Ukraine,” he continues. “The Russian
Federation has always used its energy potential not to develop its own country
but to enrich certain strata of the Kremlin and to achieve its geopolitical
goals via the conduct of military campaigns and the spread of the ‘Russian
world’ ideology.”
It is highly likely, Tsybulenko says
that in the future, “Russia will use North Flow-2 to justify the extension of
its presence in the territorial waters of Finland, Sweden, Denmark and the FRG.” Moscow already in 2007 authorized its oil and
gas giants to make use of private military companies like Vagner, and these could
be deployed against EU interests at some point.
Tsybulenko concludes: “the
swallowing up of Belarus will occur very soon. After it will come Poland’s
turn. Even if it is not swallowed whole, a little bridge to Germany through it
will be constructed just as one was across the Kerch Straits.”
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