Paul
Goble
Staunton, December 4 – Absorbing
Belarus into the Russian Federation is such an important part of the Kremlin’s
“national-imperial” agenda that Alyaksandr Lukashenka must recognize that it
cannot hope to block what Vladimir Putin wants to do unless it gains allies
both at home and abroad, according to a new iSANS report.
The 97-page report by the
Poland-based international security analysis group has been seen by journalist
Aleksandr Otroshenkov, and he presents its key findings, including extensive
quotations, in a 4500-word article for the Reform.by portal (reform.by/isans-prisoyedineniye-belarusi-printsipialnyy-vopros-dlya-rukovodstva-rossii/).
The report itself is entitled “The
Rebirth of Empire: Behind the Façade of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.”
It begins by asserting that “beginning approximately in 2007, the Kremlin made
the ideology of imperial nationalism the basis of its aggressive foreign policy”
and the absorption of Belarus as the key first step in that goal.
Even now, however, it continues, “in
the domestic policy of Russia, national-imperial ideology still isn’t dominant but
with the growth of authoritarianism, its influence has increased. As a result
of the strengthening of the positions of its adepts in the ruling circles, one
should expect significant actins in this direction also on ‘the internal front.’”
It is important to keep in mind, the report says in
the words of Otroshenkov that “the imperial trend is not just a situational
response to definite political and social challenges and does not depend
entirely on persons. On the contrary, it is a stable and vital system which has
signs of strategic planning.”
Russia has a longstanding tradition
of imperialism, but the iSANS report stresses that the disorder created by
perestroika opened the door for the supports of this trend, the so-called “Russian
party,” to significantly increase their presence in the regime and to convert themselves
into “the new Russian imperial party.’”
“With the coming to power of Putin
and the KGB-FSB in the post-Soviet period, constraints on this group disappeared
and to be in the ranks of ‘the new Russian imperial party became not only
ideologically correct but practically useful from the point of view of careers,
inclusion the circle of the chief beneficiaries of the regime, and of
enrichment.”
The iSANS report says pointedly that
“the unification of Belarus is a principle issue for the current leadership of
Russia; that is, it is the first and key stage for the beginning of the process
of restoring the Empire.” That explains why Moscow has devoted so much effort
to penetrating and subverting Belarus.
That has been possible, it suggests,
because Lukashenka until very recently has been willing to play along and thus
allowed these pro-empire groups to operate with few restrictions on the territory
of Belarus, something that has proceeded so far that he is no longer in a
position by himself to prevent Moscow from achieving its goal.
If Belarus is to survive, Lukashenka
or some successor must form alliances with the emerging civil society in
Belarus and with Western allies; and Minsk must make clear that the salvation
of the country’s independence is more important than the political survival of
Lukashenka or anyone else. If that doesn’t happen, the future for Belarus is
bleak.
If Lukashenka worries first and
foremost about his own survival, Moscow will have the inside track, iSANS says,
because Moscow has many levers it can use on him that when employed would allow
Moscow to win the day in Belarus if not immediately and de jure over the longer term and de facto.
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