Tajikistan’s Emomali Rakhmon Boosts His Son as Successor

Paul Goble

            Staunton, December 4 – Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon is boosting his son, Dushanbe Mayor Rustam Emomali, as his successor by having him meet with the leaders of Uzbekistan and the Russian Federation, an indication that the incumbent is now thinking about leadership transition and considering a dynastic arrangement, Viktoriya Panfilova says.

            Emomali Rakhmon, 67, has been dictator of Tajikistan since 1992; and so it is entirely natural that at a time when many post-Soviet leaders are thinking about who will replace them President Rakhmon should do the same, the Nezavisimaya gazeta specialist on the former Soviet space says (ng.ru/cis/2019-12-04/5_7743_tajikistan.html).

                She cites the conclusion of Aleksandr Knyazev, a Russian specialist on Central Asia, that Rakhmon junior’s recent visit to Uzbekistan would have been completely unremarkable had it not been for the fact that he was received by the president of that country who went out of his way to praise the Dushanbe mayor. 

            Rustam, 32, has had a dizzying career like the children of many of the post-Soviet elites. He was named a mayor general in 2013 and then became in succession head of the tariff service, the anti-corruption agency, and the committee on investments and state property. He has also led the Union of Youth of Tajikistan. He has been mayor of the Tajik capital since January 2017.

            Were Rustam to become president, Knyazev says, that might lead to an arrangement like that in Kazakhstan. Emomali Rakhmon would likely “keep for himself the chief role in defining the domestic and foreign policies of the country” under a title he already uses, peshvon millat (“the father of the nation”).

            But the specialist says there are some important differences that entail real risks. Emomali Rakhmon can ensure the election of anyone he wants, but tensions among the clans which have been just below the surface since the civil war in the 1990s remain strong and any change at the top will exacerbate them.

            Moreover, Knyazev says, in Tajikistan, the clans are regionally based; and so unless a new leader makes deals with them, new regional challenges to Dushanbe are likely.  And that is especially so because while Emomali Rakhmon has enormous authority, the country’s security services are known to be unhappy with his family, including Rustam.

            But perhaps the most important challenge may come from an unexpected source: the more than a million labor migrants from Tajikistan now working in the Russian Federation. Emomali Rakhmon has been trying to take control and presumably take a cut of their financial transfers home. They are angry, and their willingness to act would grow during any transition.