Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 4 – In response to
the challenges the pandemic presents and the actions officials have called for
or allowed, “a significant part” of Russian society is undergoing a
transformation with its members no longer acting as obedient subjects who always
do what they’re told to citizens who question what the powers are doing,
Aleksandr Vinogradov says.
Instead of accepting what Vladimir
Putin or other officials are doing, Russians are asking questions, Kazan’s Business
Gazeta commentator says. They want to know what laws are the basis for the
actions of the powers and why their rights are being limited without any
explanation (business-gazeta.ru/article/463930).
A few have even gone to court, suing
officials and demanding explanations, a development that in and of itself is
changing the country’s “administrative landscape” by highlighting “cracks” in
the administrative vertical and the ideological “mythology” on which it is
based.
It seems likely, Vinogradov says, that
“this tendency in the coming weeks of ‘self-isolation’ will intensify further,
especially in southern regions of Russia where the growing season is quietly
beginning and when work on the land is required for people to earn money.” Those
blocked from doing so are going to add their voices to the chorus of
questioners.
This trend has been exacerbated
further by the fact that the myth that “Russia doesn’t throw over its own.” In
fact, the commentator says, it has shut the border to thousands of Russians who
found themselves abroad. “Does that add to the honor and respect people have
for ‘the power vertical’? The question is rhetorical; the answer is negative.”
Moreover, Moscow’s response to the
pandemic has placed enough burdens on small and mid-sized business without much
hope of compensation. While such enterprises form only about a fifth to a
quarter of the Russian GDP, they perform “a most important social function” by
providing jobs and focus to millions of Russians.
By ignoring their needs, Moscow is
ignoring the needs of their employees and the employees’ families – and all
three can see that with ever greater clarity.
And Moscow has also put the regions
and municipalities in difficulty by making them responsible for the response to
the pandemic but not giving them the resources to do to effectively. Not
surprisingly, these levels of governance are shocked and confused and trying to
figure out what to do not on Moscow’s orders but in terms of their own needs.
Some of their actions have been
ill-considered perhaps, like Ivanovo which called on residents not to rent
rooms to Muscovites fleeing the city or Chechnya which has shut itself off from
the rest of the Russian Federation. But
that is no surprise in the absence of guidance and in the absence of laws that
govern the situation. When some are arbitrary, others will become so.
As a result of all this, Vinogradov
says, it is very likely that when the pandemic ends, “the regional authorities
with the complete support of their people will begin to pose to Moscow
uncomfortable questions and what is more fight tooth and nail to hold on to the
broader powers they have acquired de facto.”
This will be a long way from real
federalism, of course, he continues. But it will represent a reordering of the
political system and a transformation of its people.
As evidence of what this process is
likely to look like at the regional level, Vinogradov points to what is
happening even further down the political pyramid at the municipal level. In
the Irkutsk city of Sayansk, its mayor overruled Moscow and told businesses to
continue to work into April.
Moscow moved in and got this order
modified, but what is important, Vinogradov says, is this: Borovsky, in
response pointed out that he “comes from the milieu of entrepreneurs and know
on my own skin all the difficulties of this sphere … Therefore, I take on
myself full responsibility.”
The kind of responsibility that
those above him haven’t been willing to shoulder but precisely the kind that
citizens rather than subjects are likely to respect in the future.
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