Mirzizoyev Changes Karakalpakstan Leadership and Increases Aid to that Republic Lest It Become an Uzbek Gorno-Badakhshan

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 29 – After ending martial law in Karakalpakstan early, Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirzizoyev has changed the top official in that autonomous republic and boosted assistance to that hard-pressed region lest there be a resumption of the June violence and the republic become Uzbekistan’s version of Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan.

            After making two quick visits to Nukus at the time of the mass demonstrations in early June, Mirzizoyev ended the martial law he imposed there at that time earlier than planned. He has now made a third visit to the republic and announced two important moves (ia-centr.ru/experts/evgeniy-belichkov/na-osobom-kontrole-resheniya-shavkata-mirziyeeva-po-karakalpakstanu/).

            He has ousted republic leader Murat Kamalov, a member of a local clan that has been a major player there since the 1940s and that is closely connected with the security services, and installed in his place Amanbay Orynbayev, who had been the leader of the republic’s interior ministry in June but had earlier served in Tashkent.

            This shift is clearly intended to give Mirzizoyev greater control over Nukus and Karakalpakstan, but to make this stick more palatable, he has also offered significant assistance, not only agreeing to maintain quotas for Karakalpak students in Uzbek universities, something no other region has, but also to boost spending to try to reduce unemployment in the republic.

            Whether these moves will be enough to keep Karakalpakstan quiet is uncertain. Mirzizoyev obviously wants to avoid anything like the problems in Gorno-Badakshan. And he also wants to win points not only elsewhere in Uzbekistan but also in the West for a more thoughtful managerial approach than his predecessor Islam Karimov showed.

            But in ousting Kamalov, the Uzbekistan president has undoubtedly generated enmity among a clan that has had enormous power there in the past. Unless Tashkent can remove its members from posts below that of the republic head, the Kamalov family may now become a leader of the drive for greater autonomy for Karakalpakstan.

            If that happens, Mirzizoyev’s moves may backfire; and Central Asia may soon have another Gorno-Badakhshan-like problem on its hands.