The Longer Putin’s War in Ukraine Goes On, the Softer Russians’ Support for It is Becoming, Yerpylyeva Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 5 – Russians have not yet turned against the war in Ukraine because declaring support for it is a way of declaring support for their country and its leader, Svetlana Yerpylyeva says. But the longer the conflict drags on, the softer and less unconditional that support is becoming.

            Many suspect that polls showing massive Russian support for the war reflect both fears of punishment and the impact of propaganda. That may be the case, the expert at the Laboratory of Public Sociology says; but more important is what such declarations mean and how strongly they are held (russian.eurasianet.org/россия-что-не-так-с-массовой-поддержкой-войны).

            “Up to now we haven’t seen cases when people (who are supporters of the special military operation) have changed their position to the opposite. But with the dragging out of the conflict, there is a decline in the conviction behind such declarations,” a softening if you will that may lead to changes later.

            “If at the end of February and the beginning of March, there was the sense that this would be a short victorious war which would soon end and all would be well, then a month later, people begin to say that they support the war but phrases like ‘I of course think so but I don’t know’ began to appear, Yerpylyeva says.

            What this means is that Russian support for the war is “not unqualified,” she continues. And as many as a quarter of all Russians acknowledge that their support could shift to opposition if the war continues without a victorious outcome for too long, although as yet few are saying what “too long” would be.

            Increasingly, she suggests, Russians view taking part in protests as radicalism but also “agitating for war as radical as well.”  Thus, “the majority of both opponents and supporters of the war are still not prepared for any action, the first out of fear of repression and condemnation and the second because their support is primarily passive.”