Paul Goble
Staunton, Feb. 4 – Ever more people are talking about the disintegration of the Russian Federation along ethnic or regional lines, a sign of just how much trouble that country is in and how many are trying to find a way out for themselves and in many cases even for the country as a whole.
But if such calls grow in intensity, Abbas Gallyamov says, the results are unlikely to be what those who make them want. Instead of achieving the goals they hope, those making such appeals are likely to contribute to the further consolidation of Russian society around Putin and the further legitin of his repressive regime (publizist.ru/blogs/112974/45070/-).
Today, the former Putin speechwriter and now prominent commentator says, many Russians are “beginning to doubt that the war Russia is waging in Ukraine or the repression in Russia itself is just. “But if the country is ‘threatened with collapse,’ they will cast aside all doubts” and decide that everything the Kremlin may do to prevent that is “justified.”
“Even Prigorzhin with his sledgehammer will seem appropriate,” and if that proves true then “the efforts of the Kremlin which has been trying to impose on society as sense that it is engaged in ‘a holy war’ may finally work” and the country will be almost completely united around Putin.
To be sure, Gallyamov says, calls for secession will have some positive consequences. They “provide ideas and slogans for some in the national republics who are confused and angry thereby mobilizing them to take part in politics.” As a result, “the total number of the politically active opposition will increase.”
But “the cons will in the end outweigh the pros” of such a strategy. “For the vast majority of Russians, the demand for the collapse of the country is too radical to win them over. And without the sympathy of the majority for such a development, no one will be able to overthrow the repressive regime.”
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