Putin Threatening the Economy that has Allowed Him to Fight in Ukraine, Inozemtsev Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Nov. 30 – In the course of a wide-ranging interview with Yuliya Latynina, Russian economist Vladislav Inozemtsev makes a number of key points about both the mistakes that Vladimir Putin has made in the course of prosecuting his war in Ukraine and the mistakes that the West has made in its efforts to force him to end his aggression.

            Among the most noteworthy (novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/11/29/takticheski-avtokraty-vyigryvaiut-tak-chto-otvisaet-cheliust-a-strategicheski-oni-proigrali) are the following:

·       Putin has been able to prosecute the war because the Russian economy is today very different from the Soviet one. That model would not have allowed him to fight for as long as he has, and so efforts to return to it would destroy his ability to pursue further aggression.

·       In contrast to the wars of the 20^th century, Moscow – and Kyiv as well – have been able to fight a war without general mobilization. Both have mobilized parts of their societies even as other parts have been able to go about their business as if the war was something “secondary.”

·       The sanctions policy arose because of populism, the desire to appear to be taking action rather than taking action that achieves one’s goals. As a result, and not surprisingly, the West’s approach has failed.

·       Unless the West adopts a new approach, Moscow can continue the war at its current level for several more years “but not for 15.” Its system lacks the resources for that.

·       Many forget that as the Soviet model collapsed, so too did the “Japan.Inc” one that led many to conclude that Japan would be a new superpower. The same thing is happening now with Russia, on the one hand, and China, on the other.

·       If the West wants to force Moscow to change course, it must adopt something resembling a full economic blockade and it must not be afraid to talk about regime change.  With the exception of President Biden’s remark in Warsaw earlier this year, the last has remained taboo.

·       To peel away members of the Russian elite from Putin, the West must not punish them individually as now but rather encourage them to defect, just as it did in Soviet times.