Russia’s Demographic Problems Meet ‘Definition of Disaster’ – Small Shifts with Large and Negative Consequences, El Murid Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Jan. 27 – As a percentage of the population, the decline in the number of Russians each year has been relatively small, Anatoly Nesmiyan who blogs under the screen name El Murid says; but the impact of this small decline is casting an enormous shadow over the country as a whole as highlighted by the emerging labor shortages.

            As such, he argues, the falloff in the number of births among Russians meets “the very definition of a disaster,” when a small change in one part of the system threatens the survival of the entire system unless things change quickly (t.me/anatoly_nesmiyan/15936 reposted at kasparov.ru/material.php?id=65B3EE9881288).

            The Kremlin recognizes the danger but is so far unprepared to address it in any effective way, El Murid continues. Its exhortations and pressure will do little to ensure that Russians will have more children. They aren’t going to unless they can see a more stable and predictable future for themselves and their children than the one they believe is now on offer.

            But instead of creating the conditions in which Russians might draw that conclusion about their future, Putin and his regime are taking steps moving in exactly the opposite direction, causing Russians to have ever fewer children and exacerbating the problem that has already achieved all the characteristics of a disaster.