Paul Goble
Staunton, Jan. 17 – In talk about what kind of a deal Russia and the West might make about Ukraine, many are looking back to Finland and other conflicts where settlements were reached between Moscow and the West in Soviet times. But that is a mistake, Sergey Shelin argues.
The situation is too dissimilar because “the Russian Federation is not the USSR, Ukraine is not Finland, and Putin is not Stalin,” according to the Russian commentator. The latter difference is especially important because of Putin, the Ukrainian conflict is existential (moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/17/starie-primeri-ne-podoidut-rf-ne-sssr-ukraina-ne-finlyandiya-a-putin-ne-stalin-a152557).
“In my opinion,” Shelin says after reviewing each of the clashes from the past, “no one should count on the implementation in 2025 of any of the settlement schemes from the past and constantly being discussed. The talks being organized by Trum apparently are destined to involve the banal surrender of Ukraine, reach a dead end, or go off in some unconventional direction.”
Indeed, he continues, “nothing for example prevents Trump from personally guaranteeing Putin’s personal security and promising that he will not allow anyone to touch him. Maybe this is the key to all the problems. But Putin likely proceeds from the fact that Trump as president is not eternal while he, Putin, is.”
“But there are many ways to play on personal obsessions,” Shelin concludes, “and some of them may work.”
Paul Goble
Staunton, Jan. 17 – In talk about what kind of a deal Russia and the West might make about Ukraine, many are looking back to Finland and other conflicts where settlements were reached between Moscow and the West in Soviet times. But that is a mistake, Sergey Shelin argues.
The situation is too dissimilar because “the Russian Federation is not the USSR, Ukraine is not Finland, and Putin is not Stalin,” according to the Russian commentator. The latter difference is especially important because of Putin, the Ukrainian conflict is existential (moscowtimes.ru/2025/01/17/starie-primeri-ne-podoidut-rf-ne-sssr-ukraina-ne-finlyandiya-a-putin-ne-stalin-a152557).
“In my opinion,” Shelin says after reviewing each of the clashes from the past, “no one should count on the implementation in 2025 of any of the settlement schemes from the past and constantly being discussed. The talks being organized by Trum apparently are destined to involve the banal surrender of Ukraine, reach a dead end, or go off in some unconventional direction.”
Indeed, he continues, “nothing for example prevents Trump from personally guaranteeing Putin’s personal security and promising that he will not allow anyone to touch him. Maybe this is the key to all the problems. But Putin likely proceeds from the fact that Trump as president is not eternal while he, Putin, is.”
“But there are many ways to play on personal obsessions,” Shelin concludes, “and some of them may work.”
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
‘Russia isn’t the USSR, Ukraine isn’t Finland, and Putin isn’t Stalin’ – Shelin on Why Old Models of Conflict Resolution Won’t Work for Ukraine
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