Russian Officer Corps Unlikely to Be Happy about Reduction in Its Role after Putin’s War in Ukraine Ends, Pastukhov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 25 – Russia’s recent history has alternated between periods when the military has been dominant, usually during wars, and periods when the security services have been, usually when at least nominally Moscow is at peace with its neighbors, Vladimir Pastukhov suggests.

            Since 2013, the London-based Russian analyst says, the military has been dominant as Putin has pursued his war in Ukraine; but recently, the military has lost some of its standing because of the enormous resources it has used compared to gains and because the Prigozhin revolt showed it was less then grateful and obedience (t.me/v_pastukhov/1632 reposted at echofm.online/opinions/novyj-chekistskij-czikl).

            That suggests, Pastukhov continues, that when the war in Ukraine finally ends, the security services will gain in relative importance and the military will correspondingly lose. And that may prove a far greater threat to stability in Russia than the much-discussed impact of returning veterans on Russian society.

“It is very difficult to imagine,” he argues, “that the Russian officer corps will be psychologically prepared for the fact that with the onset of a pause in the war it will have to “roll back” to the same second-rate political positions in public and state life that it occupied before the war.”

“And this is not even taking into account the fact that ‘the man with the gun’ may have -- and most likely will have -- his own special view on the results of the war, on the balance between losses and gains, on the effectiveness of military-political management and on the fairness of the distribution of ‘rewards.’”

As a result, Pastukhov concludes, “the strengthening of the FSB as an institution influencing the political course of the Kremlin is practically the inevitable result of the completion of even simply the stopping of the war.” But exactly what this will mean is unclear, besides an unhappy officer corps.

Sometimes, the return of the security services to dominance has led to an increase in repression; and sometimes, as was the case in the 1980s, it led to Gorbachev and perestroika. What will happen this time around, Pastukhov says, is something he won’t at least for now even hazard a guess.