Ukrainian Society Now Fundamentally Different than When Putin Began His Expanded War in 2022 and Won’t Revert to What It was Before, Minakov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 6 – Ukrainian society has changed significantly since Russia began its expanded war in 2022 and will not simply revert to what it was before that date, according to Mikhail Minakhov who as surveyed senior Ukrainian social scientists who have remained in their positions since the war began on what has changed and what won’t change back.

            The Ukrainian political scientist who now works at the Kennan Institute in Washington, D.C. makes the following points (sapere.online/chto-proishodit-s-ukrainskim-obshhestvom-na-pyatom-godu-vojny/):

·       First, the Ukrainian population has declined by 20 to 35 percent as a result of emigration and deaths in combat. It will not immediately return to what it was even if a sizeable portion of those who left return and change Ukrainnian life as a result of their experiences abroad.

·       Second, the country’s economy will depend on older workers than ever before and on different regions than it did earlier.

·       Third,  those serving in the military now are “the main middle class in Ukraine, the country’s class structure has changed, and the average income is now defined by those in the army. Around them has arisen a service sector.”

·       Fourth, “the state now is the main source for the redistribution of means as more than 90 percent of them passes through the budget and those who had been at most risk, the precariat, have moved into the bureaucracy.”

·       Fifth, the territorial structure of the population has changed, with young men dominating front areas, the elderly behind them, and others having moved further back or emigrated.

·       Sixth, social solidarity has changed. Both vertical and horizonal solidarity were strong, but now the former has strengthened at the expense of the latter. People still trust volunteers but the amount of funds they control has declined precipitously.

·       Seventh, society is now divided between fighters and non-combatants, something that affects both local and regional divisions. All other divisions have become relatively less important.

·       Eighth, attitudes toward the state have changed. On the one hand, Ukrainians view it with greater detachment; but on the other, they see it as a key defender of their country. Anarchic attitudes have declined precipitously.

·       Ninth, the war years have seen a rollercoaster development in popular attitudes from optimism to pessimism and back again among others, something that may continue and create a society very different from the one that displayed less turbulence than before the war.

·       And tenth, for Ukrainians, the war has become routine but not as the norm. They think of their future not as one of permanent conflict but as peaceful and look forward to a future without fighting all the time.