Worried about Opposition If It Doesn’t’ Achieve Victory, Kremlin Discussing How to ‘Sell’ Ending War in Ukraine with Less, ‘Dossier’ Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, May 7 – Earlier this year, Russia’s Presidential Administration prepared a report on how best to “sell” an agreement on Ukraine that will be less than many Russians assumed Moscow would achieve and that could spark both anger and even  opposition in that case, according to a PA document the Dossier portal has obtained.

            According to that document, the PA has begun to prepared what might be called “the model of victory” including “propaganda narratives with the help of which it will be possible to ‘sell’ a peace agreement to Russians despite the high losses among Russian soldiers and the absence of significant results” (dossier.center/ura-pobeda/).

            The document specifies that “one must know when to stop as going too far constitutes defeat and continuing the special military operation would amount to a Pyrrhic victory,” a judgement that reflects the view of Sergey Kiriyenko’s “close associates” who “warn that continuing the war in Ukraine could force the revision of ‘fundamental positions.’”

            Those include, Dossier says, “the implementation of a general mobilization and the complete and final conversion of the entire economy to a war footing,” steps that would be deeply unpopular and make the achievement of Putin’s other goals for the country almost impossible to achieve.

            Preparing such a plan is needed, its authors say, because the most likely scenario for ending the war would be “far from the goals” Putin has declared as the reason for conducting it. And the compromises that such an accord will entail must somehow be presented as “a great victory and contribution of the president personally.”

            The PA document says that “the main achievements” of the operation will be “territorial conquests,” additional natural resources, a land bridge to Crimea and control of the shoreline of the Sea of Azov, and “the acquisition of millions of new Russian-language citizens,” according to Dossier.

            At the same time, the document says, “the propagandists plan to continue to insist that in the course of ten to fifteen years, Ukraine will cease to exist and the European Union will suffer a major economic shock” and that after such an agreement, Russia’s neighbors will adjust themselves to this new reality whatever they say now.

            But it continues, the reasons for preparing such a document are obvious: “if a war which has carried off the lives of hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens ends without obvious achievements, certain segments of Russian society may view that in a negative way,” especially the z bloggers and veterans.

            The first will be compelled to change their line and jailed if they do not, while the second must be given new positions and tasks to show how important they are to Russia and its future, the document says. For all other Russians “tired of the war and their problems,” the PA says Moscow will be able to announce good news about developments at home and abroad.

            At home, it says, Russians will face an easing of problems including the end of drone attacks and easing of sanctions and thus economic development; and abroad, they will see Russia having returned to a position as a world power that has been able thanks to the special military operation to redefine the world order and make Russia its leader well into the future.

            Dossier concedes that “it is unknown whether Putin will approve this plan,” despite PA support and the fact that it is based on a Russian endgame for Ukraine very close to what is currently the Kremlin’s negotiating position.