Paul Goble
Staunton, July 1 – “Russia’s stock market is the best measure of Russia’s problems,” far better than any poll or focus group, Tatyana Rybakova says, because it speaks “with absolute honest about what it thinks of the economy and the ways that economy is being managed or mismanaged.
Writing in The Moscow Times, the Russian commentator points out that the stock market is “the most honest and fastest public opinion poll because it takes place in real time and aggregates the views of thousands of participants” (themoscowtimes.com/2026/07/01/russias-stock-market-is-the-best-measure-of-russias-problems-the-signs-arent-good-a93139).
And it is more accurate than these other measures because those participating in the stock market, while they may be wrong on occasion, are voicing opinions that reflect the fact that they have money in the game and stand to gain or lose depending on how right they are. Moreover, these assessments are “cynical and not held back by moral qualms.”
What the Russian stock market shows now is that Russians have lost confidence in the country’s economy and those who run it. They no longer think firms will generate profits. They see that the government lacks any means of controlling inflation other than raising interest rates. And they recognize that the powers still think in Soviet terms.
Rybakova acknowledges that the market is “a little slow, not from stupidity but because ‘the whales’ – large pools of capital concentrated in investment firms – control such a large share of the Russian market that they can turn the index in any direction they want.” But this ability is limited and can’t last for very long in any particular case.
Consequently, the Russian commentator concludes, watching changes in market averages week by week if not day by day is the best way to know what Russians really think not just about the economy but about also the Kremlin that likes to claim it is controlling its direction.
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