Russia No Longer on Demographic Roller Coaster But on What is Now a Permanent Decline, Krupnov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 10 – In the decades after World War II, Russia’s demographic trajectory had long been on a roller coaster trajectory with larger and smaller generations following each other in ever decreasing echoes of the enormous losses of women of childbearing age during that conflict, Yury Krupnov says.

            But not that pattern is over, the Moscow demographer says, and been replaced by a long-term if not permanent decline with the waves that had been true in the past no longer significant compared with the decline in fertility rates as a result of modernization and urbanization (business-gazeta.ru/article/706478).

            This has been true in fact since 1964, he argues; but neither the Soviet nor the Russian leadership has recognized this demographic catastrophe, preferring both in the past and again now to assume that somehow the current demographic “pit” will give way on its own to a demographic boom.

            That isn’t going to happen, and the consequences in terms of demography, economics, and national security are immense and will only increase with time.  And because these are so great, it is time to stop assuming the band aid measures like giving bonuses to women who have children will work.

            If the birthrate is to grow again – and that is nothing that is going to happen on its own, Krupnov says – the Russian government must commit itself not only to creating an economic situation in which people will want to have children but promoting an ideology that having a large family is good for them and for their country.

            Those are enormous tasks and will take large amounts of money and may not succeed given the trend to single child or child free couples; but unless it is recognized that if they do not succeed, Russia will be depopulated and can hardly expect to remain in a position to control its enormous land.