Outcome of Kazakhstan Election Shows Where Russia and Other Post-Soviet States are Likely Heading, Grashchenkov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Aug. 24 – The outcome of the elections to the new single chamber Kazakhstan parliament shows the direction that party building is likely to take in the Russian Federation and other post-Soviet states, according to Ilya Grashchenkov, the director of the Center for the Development of Regional Policy.

            The victory of the pro-government Adilet Party with 71.7 percent of the vote “may look like the emergence of a new super party” but in fact, the way the new party was formed and how it structured the opposition shows something more profound, the commentator says (politrus.com/20260824/ilya-graschenkov-17/).

            The former party of power in Kazakhstan which Nazarbayev assembled did not go into the opposition but instead joined Adilet largely because “the old party brand was too closely connected” with the past, Grashchenkov says. And that is “an important example for United Russia” which may be compelled to do the same thing for the same reason.

            At the same time, he continues, the opposition was divided in a quite meaningful way and the most dangerous form of opposition leadership was excluded so that “there is no one party there that provides a focus for protest for everyone.” Instead, there are two relatively clear directions.”

            On the one hand, there are two parties, Respublika and Ak Zhol which are right wing and entrepreneurial; and on the other there are three, the Ayul Agrarian, the Social Democrats and the Peoples Party who represent demands for social justice and are left of center paternalists. These two wings of the Kazakhstan political spectrum received roughly equal shares in the election.

            But what is “especially significant” not only for Kazakhstan but for Russia and other former Soviet republics, Grashchenkov says, is that there is no analogue to the LDPR of the late Vladimir Zhirinovsky. That is, there is “no party trying to be at one and the same time nationalist, social, protest and fully systemic.”

            According to the commentator, “the LDPR model worked as long as there was a politician capable” of appearing set to oppose the regime within limits. “The Kazakh arrangement now shows a more modern design” with entrepreneurs voting for business parties and left-wing voters for socialist ones.

            Grashchenkov concludes: “Kazakhstan thus offers the voters a design” and those in power with a model “here the new party of power as a result of transit and several small parties representing limited but understandable interests.” Russia and the others may choose to follow such an arrangement. “That’s something to think about.”