Paul Goble
Staunton, Oct. 7 – Most discussions, Russian and otherwise, about the future of the Northern Sea Route begin with assertions that the Arctic will be ice free by 2050, making the use of that sea lane easier and safer, allowing for the expansion of trade and reducing the need for icebreakers.
But speakers at a conference on Arctic security held in Oslo last month say that all such assertions are at a minimum problematic and may lead those concerned about Arctic transit to reach the wrong conclusions (arctictoday.com/an-ice-free-arctic-ocean-in-2050-doesnt-actually-mean-ice-free/).
Tony Russell, executive director of the Center for Arctic Study and Policy at the US Coast Guard Academy, was among those insisting that there is a compelling need for a more nuanced understanding of what is going on in the Arctic and how those who hope to expand use of it must act.
That “the Arctic will be ice-free in 2050 … is a great headline,” he said. “It’s truthful but it isn’t the full story.” First of all, there will still be nearly a million square km of sea ice, an enormous amount; and because it will be less thick and therefore more mobile, this remaining ice may make shipping ever more hazardous. Others echoed his words.
Consequently, he and others said, how much use the Arctic sea lanes will allow will depend on the development of infrastructure, including more ice breakers not fewer to cope with the mobile ice. Building them and other infrastructure for the route will be enormously expensive, especially since the prime season for transit won’t expand.
And that in turn means that many governments and businesses will conclude that such investments are not cost effective and that they are better off to use alternative routes which do not require the same amount of money to maintain their current volumes or even support greater ones.
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