Paul
Goble
Staunton, February 13 – An unusual
concatenation of conditions – a former president who remains extremely popular,
problems in local party organizations, and Moscow’s concerns about stability –
means that the September elections in Kalmykia could effectively transform that
republic from a gubernatorial to a parliamentary republic.
Few other federation subjects
currently share those features, at least some have them to a greater or lesser
degree, and leaders and politicians in them are likely to be watching what
happens in Elista as an indication of a course they might pursue in order to
enhance their own standing and power relative to the center.
In an article in yesterday’s “Nezavisimaya
gazeta,” Andrey Serenko describes the intriguing situation in Kalmykia, a
predominantly Buddhist republic adjoining the North Caucasus whose former
leader Kirsan Ilyumzhinov attracted attention most often in the past because of
his interest in chess (www.ng.ru/regions/2013-02-12/1_hural.html).
Ilyumzhinov
remains extremely popular, the journalist says, and “six months before the
elections to the People’s Khural, there “have begun serious changes in the
leadership of the main political parties” in the republic, changes that could
mean the former president could become the speaker of the parliament and the
real center power of power in Kalmykia.
Civic
Platform remains headed by Mengiyan Yashayev, “a well-known entrepreneur and
politician.” Just Russia has a new leader in Erdin Karuyev, who, Serenko
suggests, is “considered one of the most effective and influential Kalmyk
politicians. And according to sources,
the KPRF branch there is about to replace Nikolay Nurov as its party leader.
Despite
their differences, the leaders of these three parties are “united on the main
thing: they are convinced supporters of former Kalmykia President Kirsan
Ilyumzhinov, as is, the “Nezavisimaya gazeta” writer point outs, Sanal Kuvakov,
the head of the republic section of the LDPR.
“This
means that in the formation of candidate lists” from all these parties, the
former president “will be able to include his supporters,” according to
political expert Svetlana Kolosova. And she and other observers suggest that
United Russia will also include a majority of pro-Ilyumzhinov people on its
list.
The
reason for that last, political scientist Vitaly Arkov says, is that
Ilyumzhinov remains extremely popular and United Russia in Kalmykia “is not in the
best form.” It is rent by conflicts among clans, a situation that has been
exacerbated by the presence in the ruling party of “influential figures.” To
win vote, United Russia needs to have pro-Ilyumzhinov candidates.
Indeed,
Ilyumzhinov himself might be willing to head that list. During an interview with the local television
channel, he mentioned the situation of former Chukotka governor Roman
Abramovich, who after leaving that post, ran for parliament and then became its
head, a possible indication of his itnentions.
“Judging
from everything,” Aleksandr Strizoye, another political anayst. suggests, “Kirsam
Ilyumzhinov is ready” to follow the same course in Kalmykia. The Kremlin may even be willing to back such
an arrangement and thus, from its point of view, “secure its full control” over
the popular politician.
Yet
another analyst, Valdimir Pavlov, drew the obvious conclusion: “If Ilyumzhinov
became a deputy and speaker [of the parliament], then this in fact will mark
the transformation of Kalmykia from a presidential republic into a
parliamentary one.” That would in turn mean that the power of the current
republic head, Aleksey Orlov, would be seriously weakened.
That
outcome, however difficult it might be to arrange anywhere else, is certain to
be watched by the leaders of the Russian Federation’s 83 subject territories as
a way of pushing to the side governors whom the Kremlin won’t remove and of
gaining the legitimacy that only elections can give.
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