Paul
Goble
Staunton, June 21 – If any more
evidence were needed to prove that Vladimir Putin is far more reckless and aggressive
than his predecessors at the end of Soviet times, it has been provided by
Dmitry Yazov, who served as Soviet defense minister from May 1987 until being
dismissed for his participation in the August 1991 coup against Mikhail
Gorbachev.
Speaking to officers in Moscow this
week, Yazov, who is the last living Soviet marshal and who himself oversaw the
use of Soviet forces in various republics, said that the dispatch of Russian
military units to Ukraine now would show
that decisions were being taken without adequate reflection and “could lead to
a third world war” (vz.ru/news/2014/6/18/691774.html).
After he was granted an amnesty by
the Duma in 1994, Yazov has been a frequent participant in veterans
organizations as well as an honored guest in Victory Day parades. Thus, he is not a marginal figure but someone
who retains significant influence among Russian military officers, many of whom
began their careers under his leadership.
Yazov’s comment suggests that there
are probably many in the Russian chain of command who have grave doubts about
the new kind of war Putin has been waging in Ukraine and the risks that would
be associated with sending units of Russian troops across the Russian-Ukrainian
border.
At
the same time, however, the differences on this point between people of Yazov’s
generation, who were more cautious about the use of force, and those of Putin’s
entourage, who are less so, reflects a judgment about what the rules of the
game are and how the West would react to their violation.
Yazov assumes as would have been the
case 30 years ago that the West would be united and rather tough against such
an action – despite the fact that the West didn’t always respond that harshly
to Soviet acts of aggression, but Putin clearly thinks that the West is divided
and won’t react in ways that he cannot absorb and wait out.
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