Paul
Goble
Staunton, July 23 -- To the dismay
of some and the surprise of others, Vladimir Putin used the Russian Security
Council meeting yesterday to signal that he has no intention of changing course
on Ukraine but instead will continue to maneuver, now stepping up his
aggression and now portraying himself as a peacemaker, according to Andrey
Piontkovsky.
That combination, which has worked
for him so far, will simultaneously hold off any domestic challenge to his rule
at least for a time while ensuring that the West remains divided on how to
respond. Indeed, the Russian analyst said, the only restraint on the Putin
regime will be that regime itself (rusmonitor.com/andrejj-piontkovskijj-zadacha-po-sverzheniyu-rezhima-budet-reshena-samim-rezhimom.html).
The
Kremlin leader is now “in a very complicated situation,” the Russian analyst
says. If he “actively supports the separatists” in Ukraine, the international
community will impose “serious sanctions.”
But “if on the other hand, he ends that support, “he would be confronted
by a serious domestic political problem” among those who have accepted his own
propaganda.
Over
the last few months, Piontkovsky points out, Putin and his regime have
suggested that what is happening in the Donbas is virtually “a struggle for the
salvation of the Russians from extermination.” If he backs away from that too
quickly, many Russians will view that as “a betrayal” and stop supporting him.
Consequently, Putin is playing for time.
He
clearly hopes that his agreement not to block an international investigation
into the Malaysian plane downing “will be viewed as an act of good will” in the
West and at the least will delay if not prevent entirely the imposition of “any radical sanctions against Russia. And
talks among the parties will also allow him “to save face.”
But
because this maneuvering satisfies no one completely, including Putin himself,
the Moscow leader cannot maintain it “forever.” But his decision to continue on as he has in
the last few weeks “is yet another piece of evidence that he has no long-term
strategy” but is only “maneuvering in order to keep himself in power.”
And
the issue of Putin’s continuance in power is now very much the subject of
discussion, Piontkovsky says. Now, the
Western media, which had been talking about a permanent Putin presidency, are
raising the question: where will Russia be “after Putin.” And such thoughts are now in Russian heads as
well.
Putin
doesn’t have “unanimous support inside the country, and what is most important,
he doesn’t have “the unanimous support of the elites,” the Russian analyst
says. He does not yet face mass protests as he did in 2011, “but a palace coup
is becoming ever more probable since Putin’s actions have dissatisfied a
significant part of his immediate entourage.”
Piontkovsky
reiterates his view that this entourage consists of two groups: “the global
kleptocrats” whose wealth depends on avoiding heightened tensions with the West
and “the national kleptocrats” who do not see their fate dependent on
maintaining good relations with the West and may even believe that they are
better off with new tensions.
But
many in both groups have “already begun to lose billions,” and they are not
happy about that, Piontkovsky says. Putin has relied on both because he is part
of both, but some in the two are now asking whether they might not be better
off without him. In this situation,
playing for time by not making a clear choice on Ukraine makes sense.
But
that tactic – and Piontkovsky insists it is not a strategy – will only work so
long because “it will not solve any problems foreign or domestic. The crisis
will continue to grow.” That is his own fault because had he stopped with the
annexation of Crimea, the West would have accepted that and his domestic
constituencies would have been pleased.
Instead,
convinced by some of his own popularity and invulnerability, he decided to try
to seize “eight oblasts” of Ukraine, the area he calls “Novorossiya.” The West
cannot accept that with equal equanimity, and the problems that have arisen in
that region have become problems for Putin, problems that threaten to become
for him “fatal.”
The
Russian leader isn’t going to gain support “before the 2018 presidential
elections” at the very least, the analyst continues. Even if there are no additional sanctions, “the
economy of Russia is in a terrible situation,” and that is only one of the many
problems Russia and hence Putin now face.
In
response, as some have speculated, Putin could try to move to a tough
totalitarian regime, but that would almost certainly generate resistance within
the regime itself and possibly lead to his overthrow. Piontkovsky says he does “not
exclude” that this could occur “already in the course of this year.” But what
would happen “after Putin” remains very much an open question.
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