Paul
Goble
Staunton, April 16 – Vladimir Putin says
his decision to sell S-300 air defense missiles to Iran will stabilize the
situation in the Middle East (nakanune.ru/news/2015/4/16/22396058/), but an
analysis by Andrey Piontkovsky strongly suggests that it will have exactly the
opposite effect and drive up the price of oil and that that outcome is why
Putin is taking this step.
On the one hand, the Russian analyst
says, Israel is likely to feel compelled to launch a military strike at Iranian
facilities in the near future before the Russian systems go operational, something
that by its very nature could trigger a broader conflagration in the already
unstable Middle East (kasparov.ru/material.php?id=552E90C34A497).
And on the other, he suggests, if
Israel does not act now, the world is likely to confront a nuclear-armed Iran
in the near term, something that could lead other countries in the oil-rich
region to try to go nuclear and compel them to raise prices in order to earn
the money needed to do so.
In either case, Putin and his regime
benefit from oil prices that could rise to unprecedented levels, something that
would allow the Kremlin leader to resume his grand bargain with the Russian
people – high incomes in exchange for powerlessness – even as it undermines
Western governments and their sanctions regime against Russia.
“Putin’s order changes everything in
the region,” Piontkovsky says. It takes away from US President Barack Obama his
chief argument in favor of the accord he and the Iranians have signed because
once the S-300s are in place, Israel would not be able to attack the Iranian
facilities, and the US could do so only with extreme difficulty.
Moreover, by his order, Putin has
reordered divisions in the Middle East itself. At present, the Sunni states
like Saudi Arabia are hopeful that Israel will take out Iran’s nuclear
capability. But if Putin’s decision forces them to act, the consequence will be
that many of these same states will again view Israel as their primary opponent
and enemy.
And Putin has changed the calculus
in Israel as well. “A few months from now,” Piontkovsky continues, “for the
first time in the history of the state of Israel, its fate and the life of all
its citizens … will depend not on the willingness of its brave men and women to
fight but on the mental state of several old mullahs inflamed with hatred for
the Jews.”
The Kremlin leader wants the
Israelis to act not only because of the problems it would cause for Israel and
the US but also because it would bring the Arabs back into its side while
driving up the price of oil from its current low levels, Piontkovsky argues.
Undoubtedly, he continues, Putin and
his entourage are fantasizing about what would happen if Israel does decide it
has no choice but to use force to prevent a threat to its existence. Oil prices
would soar. “150! 170! Lavrov will then decisively condemn Israeli aggression!
A major terrorist act in the center of Jerusalem. 200! 220! Iran launches
rocket strike against the Saudi oil platforms in the Straits of Ormuz. 250! 270
dollars a barrel!”
The Russians have done what they
could to bring this day closer, Piontkovsky says. “They have transferred to
Iran technology, they have trained specialists, they have protected Iran for 15
years in the Security Council by preventing the adoption of harsh sanctions
which really could have stopped the Iranian nuclear project.”
“And now, at the decisive moment,”
he says, the men in Moscow “have thrown on the table their trump card,” one
that if it works will earn them billions in oil revenues and ensure that they
will remain in power “forever.”
There is a related tragedy that
Piontkovsky does not address: Will the West and the United States stop lying to
itself about Putin’s intentions not only in Iran but in Ukraine and
elsewhere? Or will Western governments
and the US in particular continue to talk about possibilities for “partnership”
with a dictator who is anything but prepared to be a partner?
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