Paul Goble
Staunton, December 6 – Kyrgyzstan, like other Central Asian countries, now faces a new demographic problem, one that few expected. In the past, most focused on high birthrates which guaranteed continued population growth and ignored increasing life expectancy which meant that there are now ever more pensioners there.
As a result of these twin developments, however, Kyrgyz commentator Ulukbek Yrysbek says, the working-age share of the population has declined relative to children and pensioners, and thus the burden on it is increasing, even more rapidly than in countries like Russia where birthrates are far lower (rus.azattyk.org/a/30981882.html).
A decade from now, he reports, the share of the Kyrgyz population of pension age will reach seven percent, up from only 4.9 percent now. And the share of the working-age cohorts in the population will fall by even more than that because of still high birthrates, increasing the burdens on those between 18 and 65.
Bishkek officials are already saying, Yrysbek continues, that ‘the working-age population already is not in a position to support the constantly growing number of pensioners” given that they are already supporting the increasing number of children. The fertility rate in Kyrgyzstan is still 3.3 children per woman per lifetime, far above the replacement level of 2.1.
As a result, the country has difficulty funding schools and pensions. The latter are already too low, and almost one in ten Kyrgyz over the age of 65 has to continue to work. And emigration is making this situation worse because most of those who move abroad are working age, reducing that age group still further.
In short, the Kyrgyz analyst says, his country and others in Central Asia share this problem now has a serious demographic problem that is entirely different from the one most people assume. That problem is growing worse, and because over time, demography can be destiny, it is certain to play a key role in the region’s future.
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