Paul Goble
Staunton, August 5 – In an indication of what the Kremlin may be being told, a pro-Moscow activist in the Donbass says that there are no internal forces capable of changing Ukraine’s direction and that it will cease to be “the anti-Russia” Vladimir Putin talks about if outside force is brought to bear on that country.
On the one hand, such an argument is very much in the interests of those in Ukraine who want it to become part of the Russian world and even amalgamate with the Russian Federation. But on the other, it is a remarkable concession to the reality that Ukraine is far less divided than Moscow propagandists and the Kremlin invariably suggest.
That makes the words of Yury Apukhtin, a pro-Moscow activist from Kharkiv who spent time in a Ukrainian prison for his actions in 2014 noteworthy because they indicate that at least some taking part in debates over what Russia should do next believe the application of Russian force is the only way forward (alternatio.org/articles/articles/item/93667-proekt-ukraina-mozhno-zakryt-tolko-vozdeystviem-izvne).
He begins by echoing Putin that “the Ukraine Project was thought up and carried out by the West … for the destruction of Russian civilization” and will be used by the West for that purpose as long as it exists in its current form. Consequently, Apukhtin says, there is no chance that Moscow can ignore the situation or allow Ukraine to evolve toward collapse on its own.
And Russia has both the right and the power to do something about it, he continues. It is not some “petty statelet” but a civilizational center from which Ukraine has been snatched away by Russia’s enemies. This situation must not be allowed to fester as each passing month makes the problem greater.
Unfortunately, he says, “Russia today does not have any possibilities for affecting Ukraine by ‘soft power.’” Among the rulers of Ukraine, there are now no one oriented toward Russia, and Moscow is not in a position to change that by talk. No one in Ukraine ultimately will listen to the Russian side.
Apukhtin then asserts that “peaceful paths of the transformation of Ukraine in the short term simply do not exist. The population is demoralized, it has been ideologically worked over … and is absolutely unprepared” to do the right thing, overthrow the Kyiv powers the West has installed and turn back to Russia.
The Russian people followed the wrong course in the first years after 1991, and some in Russia argue that “Ukraine must be allowed to follow the path of independence to the end.” If that happens, they say, the people will gradually come to recognize that things must change, just as Russians did under Vladimir Putin.
But “any such path of development would be very long” and it might not have the results Russians would like. The West remains so committed to the destruction of Russia that it would be unlikely to give up on Ukraine without a fight. Its support could keep the Ukraine project going “for decades.”
Russia can’t apply “military force” against Ukraine unless there is a provocation, although there are enough of them and more can be expected or arranged. The Kremlin is committed to the Minsk accords, and no one in Moscow wants “a grandiose international scandal.” Then an intervention could take place, and the West would stand aside.
In thinking about what to do, Apukhtin says, everyone in Moscow must understand tahat “for the transformation of the country there are simply no internal forces, and this regime [in Kyiv] can exist for quite a long time and its ‘self-destruction’ will be a long time coming, something that constitutes a serious threat to the national interests of Russia.”
Moscow demonstrated it could act without adverse consequences by its annexation of Crimea in 2014, the activist says. It must plan to do something similar again. If it does and if it acts quicky and decisively, it is even possible that “the Americans will be potentially ready for dialogue” about what to do with Ukraine.
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