Outcome of Putin’s War in Ukraine will Transform Central Asia, Regional Experts Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Mar. 1 – The future of Central Asia depends on the outcome of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the reaction of the West. If Putin succeeds and the West reduces its sanctions, then Central Asia will fall increasingly under Moscow’s sway; if he loses or if the West maintains its sanctions, the countries of that region will go in a very different direction.

            That is the view of experts from four of the countries -- Turkmenistan, as usual, was not considered -- surveyed by Nargiza Muratliyeva, an editor at IWP’s Central Asian Bureau for Analytic reporting (cabar.asia/ru/kakih-posledstvij-ozhidat-stranam-tsentralnoj-azii-ot-vojny-rossii-v-ukraine).

            Dauren Aben, a Kazakh political scientist, points out that up to now, Kazakhstan has avoided taking an official position on the Ukrainian crisis, concerned not to offend the Kremlin or put itself at odds with the West. The authorities have not yet recovered from the January protests but already recognize that “the future of Kazakh-Russian relations depends on the outcome of the Kremlin’s military gamble.”

            Clearly, “the defeat of Ukraine in the war is not in the interests of Kazakhstan as that will further strengthen the country’s dependence on Russia, effectively turning it into a satellite of the aggressor along with Belarus.”  A Russian defeat, on the other hand, will “call into question” the existing Russian-led integration efforts in the region.

            Kyrgyz political scientist Medet Tyulegenov says that the war won’t affect Bishkek’s foreign policy because it doesn’t really have one; but a Russian success would make the Kyrgyz government even more willing to ignore international norms, seeing that Moscow has been able to get away with violating them.

            Tajik political scientist Rustami Suhrob says that to the extent Russia’s involvement in Ukraine has a negative impact on the Russian economy, that impact will also be felt in Tajikistan, the country’s largest trading partner and the place to which many of its people have gone to work.

            A Russian victory will thus intensify Dushanbe’s ties with Moscow, while a Russian defeat or prolonged isolation will lead Tajikistan to strengthen its ties with China, Suhrob argues. Tajikistan does not have the luxury of neutrality: its weakness means that it will have to follow in train of one or the other or a third if it becomes availab.e

            And Alisher Ilkhamov, an Uzbek analyst, says that the situation in Uzbekistan is somewhat different than in the other three. The country’s leadership is worried that Russia might move militarily against Uzbekistan if it succeeds in Ukraine and so is considering how it could beef up its defenses, something it faces problems doing because of economic weakness.

            Tashkent can’t go too far in subordinating itself to Moscow because that would undermine the legitimacy of the regime, the analyst says; and as a result, the current government will strive to maintain a balance between Moscow and the West; but “it won’t be easy to do so,” especially if Russia wins and becomes more demanding.