Staunton, June 26 – Banking analysts predict that Central Asians working in the Russian Federation will be sending home between a quarter and a third less money this year than they did in 2021, a decline that will trigger a social crisis in their homelands because these payments represent roughly 30 percent of their GDPs, Talgat Mamyrayymov says.
The Kyrgyz analyst says that this decline reflects problems in the Russian economy, anger among Russians that Central Asians are taking jobs from them, and rumors among Central Asian migrants that Moscow may try to use them in combat in Ukraine (check-point.kz/publication?id=587&).
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan expects a decline in transfer payments of between 18 and 25 percent, the World Bank says this fall will range from 17 percent in Kazakhstan to 33 percent in Kyrgyzstan, and the Asiatic Development Bank projects that transfers from Russia to Tajikistan will decline by as much as half.
If these figures prove correct, Mamyrayymov says, there could be outbreaks of real hunger in some parts of Central Asia by the end of the year; and even if these are avoided, it is beyond doubt that social tensions will increase, especially if the current Russian campaign against illegal immigrants increases or the Russian economy continues to contract.
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