Demography Changing Relations between North Caucasus and Moscow as well as Relations of Republics There with Each Other

Paul Goble

            Staunton, June 17 – For most of the last 50 years, analysts have assumed that the birthrate in the North Caucasus was so high that the region would be able to supply workers to the rest of Russia and still grow and that the differences in birthrates among the nationalities among the republics were so small that there was little chance demography would change their relations.

            But developments in the last decade and especially in the last several years, including the pandemic, have called both of those assumptions into question, with Russian officials now saying the region will see a decline in its overall population over the next eight years and major changes in there relative size of the republics there.

            These trends, a new analysis suggests, reflect both changes in the balance between births and deaths in the non-Russian republics of the region and in the readiness of people in them to leave for work elsewhere (capost.media/special/severnyy-kavkaz-k-2030-godu-poteryaet-bolee-110-tysyach-zhiteley/).

            Birthrates across the North Caucasus are still higher than in Russian regions of the country, but they are falling, the population is aging, and death rates are rising, leaving fewer people ready to migrate to Central Russia and the population of the region as a whole declining, with a loss of more than 110,000 people by 2030.

            That will almost certainly mean that Moscow will have to allow even more immigrant workers from Central Asia, the TransCaucasus and perhaps elsewhere in the future if it is to compensate for natural decreases in the population and will also face more difficulties in meeting even existing quotas for the military draft.

            But more immediately and perhaps ultimately more consequentially, the republics of the North Caucasus are diverging demographically with some growing smaller already and only a few growing larger. Karachayevo-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria and North Ossetia are already facing declines because of falling natural increases and continuing outmigration.

            Although Moscow has shown itself opposed to any influx of Circassians from the Middle East, the declines in population in KChR and KBR may cause governments there to press for that, given that without a new influx of workers, they will see their republics continue to decline economically.

            The others are doing relatively better but only Chechnya and Ingushetia, the two Waynakh republics, are projecting significant growth in the coming years. They will thus be in a better position to challenge others; and given the current political arrangements, this will make Chechnya an even more important player in the region and in Russia as a whole.