Sunday, August 28, 2022

UN Figures Show Russia on Path to Demographic Extinction, Krupnov and Chernyshov Say

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 31 – Yury Krupnov of the Moscow Institute of Demography, Migration, and Regional Development says that United Nations data show that Russia now “faces extinction and disappearance from history;” and Nakanune analyst Yevgeny Chernyshov summarizes the data pointing to that conclusion.

            “By most demographic criteria” reported by the UN, the Nakanune news agency analyst says, “Russia is at the bottom half of all countries and by some it is almost at the very bottom. This is a truth which must be reckoned with.” But instead, the government is in denial and the population is kept in the dark about the true state of affairs.”

            “Most officials are afraid to speak the truth, fearing that they will get in trouble with their bosses and thus continue to present a falsely positive picture of where the country is.” But as they do that, Chernyshov says, “the population is dying out” and doing far more rapidly than many suspect (

            He offers the following evidence drawn from 2021:

·       Russia ranks 15th from the bottom of the 236 countries the UN surveyed in terms of mortality rates.

·       This position did not reflect the impact of covid because other countries suffered from that and Russia’s ranking did not change.

·       Life expectancy in Russia fell by 4.5 years in 2021, the second greatest decline among all countries.

·       Russia suffered a million more deaths than births last year, the first time any country has suffered that kind of decline since 1950.

·       Russia ranked 193rd among the countries of the world with a fertility rate of 1.49 children per woman per lifetime.

·       In terms of mortality before age 40, Russia ranked 158th in the world; and in terms of mortality before 60, 179th.

·       Among men between 15 and 60, Russia ranked 212th, below even the poorest African countries.

·       And these figures are especially bad because Russia has succeeded in reducing infant mortality significantly. It ranks 40th in the world in terms of that figure.

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