Regional Elites will Play Greater Role than Peoples in Promoting Approaching Disintegration of Russian Federation, Yakovenko Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 4 – There are many ways in which the situation in the Russian Federation is very different now than the one the Soviet Union faced at its end, but there are three similarities that are going to define what will be “the third and final disintegration of the Russian empire,” Igor Yakovenko says.

            First of all, when the process begins, even peoples and elites who have never thought about independence will follow those who are take the lead, the Russian opposition journalist says. Consequently, dismissing the role of republics and regions without serious national movements is a mistake (apostrophe.ua/article/world/ex-ussr/2022-12-03/rossiyu-posle-porajeniya-v-ukraine-jdet-klassika--rossiyskiy-jurnalist/49215).

            Before 1991, it was the three Baltic countries, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine who were most active; but soon places where no one ever thought a nationality movement existed were making similar demands. Something like that is going to happen again, regardless of what anyone expects.

            Second, this process will be driven by elite calculations rather than popular attitudes. The population in many places may not be thinking about pursuing independence, but elites are constantly making calculations about what will benefit themselves most. Once they conclude that they will benefit by seeking independence, that is what they will do.

            Again, the same thing was true in the lead up to the demise of the USSR. It was the party leaders in republics in Central Asia who pushed for leaving then; it will be senior officials whom Moscow has appointed who will do the same thing this time around. It won’t be ethno-nationalism that drives them but elite calculations.

            And third, precisely because ethno-nationalism wasn’t the primary driver 30 years ago and won’t be again, areas that many assume will remain in Russia because they have ethnic Russian pluralities are likely to pursue independence too. Indeed, this time around, they may play a disproportionate role.

            Before 1991, the non-Russian nations made up almost 50 percent of the population; now, they form roughly 20 percent or a little more. But once they leave, the leaders of Russian regions just like the leaders of union republics without a traditional of nationalism will decide to take advantage of the situation to feather their nests.

            That is because Russian regions under current arrangements are just as much Moscow’s imperial subjects as non-Russian ones. Indeed, they may be even more so because they lack the ability to mobilize the population along ethnic lines and demand that the center make concessions lest the nationalisms Moscow fears grow.