Russian Force Structures Know They’ll Survive Putin’s Demise, Leaving Them and Him in a Different Position than Their Iranian Counterparts, Gallyamov Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, Dec. 5 – The ongoing events in Iran highlight an important difference between the political systems of Russia and Iran, a difference that is likely to matter as the regimes in the two countries suffer the agony of collapse and replacement, former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov says.

            Russian courts and special services are “Putinist only de facto but not by form,” he says. “From the point of view of law, they bear, if one can so express it, an ‘all-government’ character and are not attached to the regime.” They know that if the Putin system falls, their institutions may be purged and renamed but will remain (publizist.ru/blogs/112974/44578/-).

            The situation is entirely different for their Iranian colleagues, Gallyamov says. The Guardians of the Islamic Revolution and the Islamic Revolutionary Courts were created within the framework of the Islamic Republic and “exist in parallel to ‘all-government’ structures, which also exist in Iran.

            Because of this different, Russian judges and FSB officers “know that their organizations will continue to exist even after the regime’s fall.” But Iranian ones have no similar confidence. They are much more closely tied to the regime. If it falls, so do they; and so they are much more likely to fight “to the last bullet.”

            The Iranian ayatollahs understand that and count on it, Gallyamov says; an din this, they have proved to be “much more far-sighted than Putin and Surkov” who when they might have been able to do so neglected this kind of institution building and so have left themselves at far greater risk of being overthrown than are the Islamic leaders of Iran.