Russia’s Looming Disintegration Will Involve Less Violence than Putin’s War in Ukraine, Etkind Says

Paul Goble

            Staunton, July 4 – One of the chief arguments those who oppose the decolonization of the Russian state make is that any moves in that direction would trigger violence among the states that would emerge. Some violence is likely, Aleksandr Etkind acknowledges; but it is almost certain to be far less than the violence of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.

            And it is that comparison rather than one between a supposedly peaceful present and a violent disintegration which must be kept in mind, according to the Russian historian at Vienna’ Central European University (idelreal.org/a/nasiliya-budet-menshe-aleksandr-etkind-o-vozmozhnom-raspade-rossii-/33004999.html).

            In the course of an extensive interview with Regina Khisamova of the IdelReal portal, Etkind makes a number of additional points, all of which are noteworthy:

·       Russians find it difficult to accept that their country is an empire because they do not know its history and the fact that in the 19^th century, Russia’s leading historians and commentators proudly described it as such.

 

·       Russia might have survived as a single country if Putin had not invaded Ukraine, but his war there, especially if it continues for much longer, will come with a high price – and part of that will involve the decolonization of some or all of it.

 

·       “The disintegration of the Russian Federation will be connected with various conflicts, large and small … borders between the regions and the so-called republics like Bashkortostan and Tatarstan established in Soviet times” may very well be changed.

 

·       But whatever happens, the amount of violence and force in the course of such a disintegration will be less than that Putin is visiting on the country by his war in Ukraine; “and in this sense, the development will be positive.”

 

·       Many now think Moscow will try to hold things together by making Russia into a copy of North Korea. But any such attempt will fail – and the more Putin moves in that direction, the more complete the disintegration of Russia is likely to be.